Once again, our dear Federal Reserve stepped in and made a half-point rate cut, a move that Wall Street (and me) apparently liked :)
I know you know that many also know that the rate cut didn't come as a complete surprise, as the stock market had been banking on it. They just weren't sure if it would be the half-point cut, or a more cautious quarter-point. The move today puts the federal funds rate target at 3%, the lowest since June 2005!
Once the cut was announced just now, the stock markets went positive: within minutes of the decision, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 100 points at one point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose following the report.
Well, it's positive news (at least for a while), but between this latest cut and last week's unexpected three-quarter point cut, will it be enough to rejuvenate the economy? Let's wait and see. To me, it has been more waiting and less seeing.
Interestingly, the Dow turned right around, gave back every penny of its gains, and ended the day DOWN 37 points at the closing bell! Why? Because most investors in the street aren't dumb. They know what's going on in their own neighborhoods. They see the handwriting on the wall in the headlines. And they realize Bernanke's caught between a rock and a hard place.
On one hand (the rock), the US economy is sinking very slowing, but surely. Home construction plunged 24% in the fourth quarter, the worst since 1981! The economy sputtered to a virtual standstill in the fourth quarter, crawling at the anemic pace of just 0.6% per year! And for the entire year, GDP growth was the worst since 2002, then when the economy was suffering from the aftermath of 9-11, a tech wreck, and a wave of scandal-ridden corporate bankruptcies — all at the same time!
On the other hand (a hard place), resurging inflation that only gets worse as the Fed cuts rates and pumps more money into the market. My favourite inflation hedger, Mr Gold, is my best indicator. Gold is on fire, surging another $7 just today! The U.S. Dollar Index got killed today — down 75 basis points on today's Fed rate cut alone. And then in November, we saw the most dramatic surge in wholesale prices in 22 years! Finally, import prices surged by a staggering 10.9%, signaling much, much higher inflation ahead!
This is serious!
This is scary!!
This is shocking!!!
It means that long before the Fed's rate cuts begin to have the desired impact on the economy, they're already beginning to backfire with more inflation. Do you see it now? Are you selling too? I am, and I suggest you do the same, at least for short term. Leave emotion out of the equation. Just clear your stock holdings and keep at least 70% cash, 20% Bonds, & 10% equities if you must.
Good luck, or else, good bye!!!
King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Friday, January 25, 2008
Until the Day's Out
"Measure not the work until the day's out and the labor done."
Elizabeth Barrett Browning
(1806-1861)
English poet
Elizabeth Barrett Browning
(1806-1861)
English poet
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Stay Alive!
There is a remedy for everything except death.
- A French Proverb
So stay alive and you can pull through anything. Death may be near or far, but the choice to work at something worth working is yours to take today. Stay focus and stay alive!
- A French Proverb
So stay alive and you can pull through anything. Death may be near or far, but the choice to work at something worth working is yours to take today. Stay focus and stay alive!
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
True Brilliance is...
True brilliance is not a function of understanding one's view of the world and finding order, logic, and spirituality in it.
True brilliance is understanding that your view of order, logic, and spirituality is what created your world. And therefore being forever capable of changing everything.
Got the view now?
True brilliance is understanding that your view of order, logic, and spirituality is what created your world. And therefore being forever capable of changing everything.
Got the view now?
Monday, January 21, 2008
World Largest Bond Insurer Collapsing
Ambac and MBIA, the two largest bond insurers in the world, are careening toward collapse. Barring a miraculous rescue, their demise could promptly deliver a massive blow to the U.S. bond market, and severely damage America's already shaken big banks, and largely trash the net worth of millions of investors.
Just this past Friday, soon after the closing bell in New York, the watershed event happened: Ambac lost its triple-A rating! Fitch slashed Ambac's rating by two notches to AA, downgraded the long-term rating of Ambac's parent company by three notches, and said more cuts could be on the way.
Since the ratings of insured bonds are tied directly to the ratings of the insurer, Fitch was also forced to take action on the 137,000 bonds that are covered by Ambac, setting off a veritable ratings massacre in the market for municipal and mortgage-backed bonds.
Now, based on the current market price of credit swaps (bets on future defaults), Wall Street itself believes that the chance Ambac and MBIA will avoid bankruptcy is less than one in three. Next, brace yourself for the other shoes that could soon be falling. There are at least 6 of them coming our way:
First, the other two leading rating agencies — Moody's and S&P — are likely to follow Fitch's lead and also downgrade Ambac. In fact, on Thursday, Moody's already warned it could do so very soon.
Second, the other major bond insurers, such as MBIA and FGIC, will get smacked with downgrades.
Third, the ratings massacre now taking place in Ambac-insured bonds will spread to $2.3 trillion worth of municipal bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, plus asset-backed bonds packed with credit card and auto loans.
Fourth, $45 trillion in the world's fastest-growing type of derivative — credit default swaps — will be in jeopardy. Indeed, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal:
"The turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their many trades with one another."
"Today, a struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its trading partners for more time as it scrambles to unwind more than $60 billion of insurance contracts it sold to financial firms but can't fully pay off, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts were intended to protect Wall Street firms from losses on mortgage securities and other debt they own."
"The problem is that the insurer itself is teetering — with repercussions across the financial world. Some of its trading partners, called counterparties, already are writing off billions of dollars because of its inability to pay ..."
"This has investors and regulators worried that, through such swaps, some market players could spread their own problems to the wider financial system ..."
"The issue is raising broader concern among regulators and investors over what Wall Street calls 'counterparty risk,' the danger that one party in a trade can't pay its losses. ..."
Fifth, virtually all credit ratings, whether tied to bond insurers or not, will come under intense scrutiny. The reasons are twofold:
a) Deteriorating finances: If you're running a bank, a hedge fund or a major brokerage firm, and most of your trading partners get swiftly downgraded, your credit rating will also have to be slashed.
b) Declining investor confidence in the accuracy of the ratings themselves: If you're an investor and you see thousands of ratings falling like flies, you're going to seriously doubt the accuracy of every rating under the sun.
Sixth, the crisis could spread to hundreds of trillions in other derivatives beyond credit swaps.
Don't wait! The collapse of bond insurers, bond ratings and credit swaps is moving quickly. And it's accelerating. Don't underestimate its magnitude! This is not an isolated crisis. It could have an impact that's at least as large as the housing bust or the recession.
You can start doing something still. Greatly reducing your exposure to most U.S. stocks and bonds. Personally, I will take a 50-20-30 line-up:
50% Bonds, 20% Cash, 30% Equities.
Remember: Beware of those who might try to dismiss the warnings as "gloom and doom." Instead, just look at the facts. Then make up your own mind.
Best of Trading, God bless!
Just this past Friday, soon after the closing bell in New York, the watershed event happened: Ambac lost its triple-A rating! Fitch slashed Ambac's rating by two notches to AA, downgraded the long-term rating of Ambac's parent company by three notches, and said more cuts could be on the way.
Since the ratings of insured bonds are tied directly to the ratings of the insurer, Fitch was also forced to take action on the 137,000 bonds that are covered by Ambac, setting off a veritable ratings massacre in the market for municipal and mortgage-backed bonds.
Now, based on the current market price of credit swaps (bets on future defaults), Wall Street itself believes that the chance Ambac and MBIA will avoid bankruptcy is less than one in three. Next, brace yourself for the other shoes that could soon be falling. There are at least 6 of them coming our way:
First, the other two leading rating agencies — Moody's and S&P — are likely to follow Fitch's lead and also downgrade Ambac. In fact, on Thursday, Moody's already warned it could do so very soon.
Second, the other major bond insurers, such as MBIA and FGIC, will get smacked with downgrades.
Third, the ratings massacre now taking place in Ambac-insured bonds will spread to $2.3 trillion worth of municipal bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, plus asset-backed bonds packed with credit card and auto loans.
Fourth, $45 trillion in the world's fastest-growing type of derivative — credit default swaps — will be in jeopardy. Indeed, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal:
"The turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their many trades with one another."
"Today, a struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its trading partners for more time as it scrambles to unwind more than $60 billion of insurance contracts it sold to financial firms but can't fully pay off, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts were intended to protect Wall Street firms from losses on mortgage securities and other debt they own."
"The problem is that the insurer itself is teetering — with repercussions across the financial world. Some of its trading partners, called counterparties, already are writing off billions of dollars because of its inability to pay ..."
"This has investors and regulators worried that, through such swaps, some market players could spread their own problems to the wider financial system ..."
"The issue is raising broader concern among regulators and investors over what Wall Street calls 'counterparty risk,' the danger that one party in a trade can't pay its losses. ..."
Fifth, virtually all credit ratings, whether tied to bond insurers or not, will come under intense scrutiny. The reasons are twofold:
a) Deteriorating finances: If you're running a bank, a hedge fund or a major brokerage firm, and most of your trading partners get swiftly downgraded, your credit rating will also have to be slashed.
b) Declining investor confidence in the accuracy of the ratings themselves: If you're an investor and you see thousands of ratings falling like flies, you're going to seriously doubt the accuracy of every rating under the sun.
Sixth, the crisis could spread to hundreds of trillions in other derivatives beyond credit swaps.
Don't wait! The collapse of bond insurers, bond ratings and credit swaps is moving quickly. And it's accelerating. Don't underestimate its magnitude! This is not an isolated crisis. It could have an impact that's at least as large as the housing bust or the recession.
You can start doing something still. Greatly reducing your exposure to most U.S. stocks and bonds. Personally, I will take a 50-20-30 line-up:
50% Bonds, 20% Cash, 30% Equities.
Remember: Beware of those who might try to dismiss the warnings as "gloom and doom." Instead, just look at the facts. Then make up your own mind.
Best of Trading, God bless!
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Statistics is like a Bikini
Statistics is like a Bikini; what is revealed is suggestive, but what is concealed is vital.
-Unknown
That's why you should not be paying too much attention to the media. Do your own research and uncover for yourself the vitals. Then go make the right decisions.
-Unknown
That's why you should not be paying too much attention to the media. Do your own research and uncover for yourself the vitals. Then go make the right decisions.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Never Mind the Rest
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Which Bond to Buy?
With the current uncertainties in the market, it is difficult to predict which way she will go over the next one to three months. If you think about the tough decisions regarding equities, the proponents in the opposite camps (the fixed income groups) are not having any easier space. Just look at the universe of bond funds and you will realize that getting into bonds is not as easy as getting a Char Siew Pao at your local 7-11 friendly store.
(Oh yes, by the way, if 7-11 store claims that they never closed, then why are there locks on their doors? I am still puzzled till this day? Any one knows?)
Question is: Are we done with the correction yet?
Answer: Wrong question!!!
A better question is "Are we done with the misplaced confidence in the bull market yet"?
This market is due for a crude awakening. When that realization dawn upon investors, the flight to safety will commence and then the market will start to have another set of concerns: Where to re-allocate?
Bonds have not fare well over the last 4 years (compared to equities). Will they perform now? If so, which one? Global or regional? High yield or high grade? Which fund houses? What about my local governement debt securities?
Looking at the above chart, you will find that some bonds are valued higher than others, but with much lower volatility. Now, volatility is not a bad thing. You need to manage it. Others offer value now but inherently have higher volatilities. The key is balance. If you are already in a balanced portfolio, then balance your balanced portfolio. There is much allocation to be done even within the bond segment. So take a look again at your bond holdings. It pays.
Good luck.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Risk of Love
The Risk of Love
(by Kris Hydmore)
There is a risk involved in everything
Every time you share a smile
Every time you shed a tear
You are opening yourself up to hurt.
Some people tread slowly through life,
Avoiding the closeness risk brings,
Side-stepping the things they can't understand
Turning away from those who care too much,
Those who care stay too long,
Those who hold too tightly.
There is never an easy way to love
You cannot approach it cautiously
It will not wait for you to arm yourself.
It does not care if you turn away
It is everywhere, it is everything.
Love is the greatest of all risks.
It is not reliable, it is not cautious,
It is not sympathetic
It is unprejudiced and unmerciliess.
It strikes the strongest of mind,
And brings them to their knees in one blow.
Even in the best of times, love hurts.
It hurts to need, it hurts to belong,
It hurts to be the other part of someone else,
Without either of your consent.
But, from the moment it overtakes you,
It hurts worse to be all alone.
The risk of love never depletes;
It grows stronger and more dangerous with time.
But, it's in the total surrender of all defense,
That we, no matter weak or strong,
No matter willing or captive,
No matter what, we truly experience love.
Despite the many things love is not,
Outweighing it all are the things that love is.
Love is surrender without a loss.
It is a gift without the cost.
It consumes your every thought & desire,
Every breath you take.
It is the fire that fuels you
To do more than pass through life;
It urges you, instead, to live.
No matter the outcome, having felt love,
You will never be the same.
It may scar your heart & soul
And Leave you only memories of forever.
Or, it may cause every day of your life
To feel like there is no need for tomorrow.
But, love is worth it.
It is worth the risk...
For in all of life,
Love is truly the only risk worth taking.
(by Kris Hydmore)
There is a risk involved in everything
Every time you share a smile
Every time you shed a tear
You are opening yourself up to hurt.
Some people tread slowly through life,
Avoiding the closeness risk brings,
Side-stepping the things they can't understand
Turning away from those who care too much,
Those who care stay too long,
Those who hold too tightly.
There is never an easy way to love
You cannot approach it cautiously
It will not wait for you to arm yourself.
It does not care if you turn away
It is everywhere, it is everything.
Love is the greatest of all risks.
It is not reliable, it is not cautious,
It is not sympathetic
It is unprejudiced and unmerciliess.
It strikes the strongest of mind,
And brings them to their knees in one blow.
Even in the best of times, love hurts.
It hurts to need, it hurts to belong,
It hurts to be the other part of someone else,
Without either of your consent.
But, from the moment it overtakes you,
It hurts worse to be all alone.
The risk of love never depletes;
It grows stronger and more dangerous with time.
But, it's in the total surrender of all defense,
That we, no matter weak or strong,
No matter willing or captive,
No matter what, we truly experience love.
Despite the many things love is not,
Outweighing it all are the things that love is.
Love is surrender without a loss.
It is a gift without the cost.
It consumes your every thought & desire,
Every breath you take.
It is the fire that fuels you
To do more than pass through life;
It urges you, instead, to live.
No matter the outcome, having felt love,
You will never be the same.
It may scar your heart & soul
And Leave you only memories of forever.
Or, it may cause every day of your life
To feel like there is no need for tomorrow.
But, love is worth it.
It is worth the risk...
For in all of life,
Love is truly the only risk worth taking.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Love is like Bread.
Love doesn't just sit there, like a stone;
it had to be made, like bread, remade all the time, made new.
Ursula Le Guin
it had to be made, like bread, remade all the time, made new.
Ursula Le Guin
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Friday, January 11, 2008
Happiness or Unhappiness?
"I am more and more convinced that our happiness or our unhappiness depends far more on the way we meet the events of life than on the nature of those events themselves."
Karl Wilhelm Von Humboldt
1767-1835,
German Statesman
Karl Wilhelm Von Humboldt
1767-1835,
German Statesman
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Man alone...
Man, alone, has the power to transform his thoughts into physical reality; man, alone, can dream and make his dreams come true.
Napoleon Hill (my favourite author)
Napoleon Hill (my favourite author)
Labels:
Attitude,
Courage,
Determination,
Quote - Napoleon Hill
Monday, January 7, 2008
Cannot Be Done?
The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person who is doing it.
Unknown
Unknown
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Don't Miss the Big Picture
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Be on Higher Ground!
"If you desire certain traits, desire to maintain a certain character, then the only way to achieving this state of being is to be it through performing actions that coincide with that state.
If you wish to be just you must perform just actions, if you wish to be strong you must perform with strength. Too many of us spend time wondering 'why not?' without realizing that in those moments of contemplation we could very well be performing the very actions that would make us into what we believe we may not be.
To reach higher ground, simply lift another person up. We experience the lightest step when we relieve ourselves of the weight we choose to carry around with us."
-John Kanary
"If you would lift me up you must be on higher ground."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson
If you wish to be just you must perform just actions, if you wish to be strong you must perform with strength. Too many of us spend time wondering 'why not?' without realizing that in those moments of contemplation we could very well be performing the very actions that would make us into what we believe we may not be.
To reach higher ground, simply lift another person up. We experience the lightest step when we relieve ourselves of the weight we choose to carry around with us."
-John Kanary
"If you would lift me up you must be on higher ground."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson
Friday, January 4, 2008
Sell Every Day
Everyday I gotta sell. And so do you.
Selling is not a comfortable activity for most human beings though. It's easier for most of us to find something else to do. Something that is more pleasurable. Or something that gives our brain the illusion of "real work", when we're really just wasting time.
The thing is, when you have to sell, you can and you do. The resistance you may have at times, is just that: resistance.
The trick to selling faster is to move beyond the resistance. Or to ignore the resistance.
Or to acknowledge the resistance, and take action anyway.
You see, any resistance you might have, is all just in your head. We all make things harder than they should be at times for ourselves (and that includes me). If someone were to put a gun to your head, and tell you to go make some bucks, right now, you'd do it.
Your brain would tap your self-preservation instinct, and motivated by your will to live (and the fear of death) you would overcome all other fears and excuses and you would just do it. You would produce.
So what are you waiting for? Today the weather is bad, but so what. Does that really matter? You can come up with lots of excuses. Ignore the excuses your brain comes up with or acknowledge them, if that helps you, and then get busy anyway.
Move towards what your afraid of, and then move through it, and finally move beyond and past it. You'll be amazed at how well you can do, and how good it feels.
Sell with pride, my friend. See you at the top!
Selling is not a comfortable activity for most human beings though. It's easier for most of us to find something else to do. Something that is more pleasurable. Or something that gives our brain the illusion of "real work", when we're really just wasting time.
The thing is, when you have to sell, you can and you do. The resistance you may have at times, is just that: resistance.
The trick to selling faster is to move beyond the resistance. Or to ignore the resistance.
Or to acknowledge the resistance, and take action anyway.
You see, any resistance you might have, is all just in your head. We all make things harder than they should be at times for ourselves (and that includes me). If someone were to put a gun to your head, and tell you to go make some bucks, right now, you'd do it.
Your brain would tap your self-preservation instinct, and motivated by your will to live (and the fear of death) you would overcome all other fears and excuses and you would just do it. You would produce.
So what are you waiting for? Today the weather is bad, but so what. Does that really matter? You can come up with lots of excuses. Ignore the excuses your brain comes up with or acknowledge them, if that helps you, and then get busy anyway.
Move towards what your afraid of, and then move through it, and finally move beyond and past it. You'll be amazed at how well you can do, and how good it feels.
Sell with pride, my friend. See you at the top!
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Recipe: How to Make Love
rec·i·pe /ˈrÉ›sÉ™pi [res-uh-pee]
1. a set of instructions for preparing something, esp. a food dish;
2. a method to attain a desired end.
Dictionary.com
HOW TO MAKE LOVE - A Recipe of Love
Ingredients:
4 Laughing eyes
4 Well-shaped legs
4 Loving arms
2 Firm milk containers
2 Nuts
1 Fur-lined mixing bowl
1 Firm banana
Directions:
1. Look into laughing eyes.
2. Spread well-shaped legs with loving arms.
3. Squeeze and massage milk containers very gently.
4. Gently add firm banana to mixing bowl, working in and out until well creamed. For best results. Continue to knead milk containers.
5. As heat rises, plunge banana deep into mixing bowl and cover with nuts, leave to soak (preferably NOT overnight).
6. The cake is done when banana is soft.
If banana does not soften, repeat 4 steps 3-5 or change mixing bowls.
Notes:
1. If you are in an unfamiliar kitchen, wash utensils carefully before and after use.
2. Do not lick mixing bowl after use.
3. If cake rises, leave town.
1. a set of instructions for preparing something, esp. a food dish;
2. a method to attain a desired end.
Dictionary.com
HOW TO MAKE LOVE - A Recipe of Love
Ingredients:
4 Laughing eyes
4 Well-shaped legs
4 Loving arms
2 Firm milk containers
2 Nuts
1 Fur-lined mixing bowl
1 Firm banana
Directions:
1. Look into laughing eyes.
2. Spread well-shaped legs with loving arms.
3. Squeeze and massage milk containers very gently.
4. Gently add firm banana to mixing bowl, working in and out until well creamed. For best results. Continue to knead milk containers.
5. As heat rises, plunge banana deep into mixing bowl and cover with nuts, leave to soak (preferably NOT overnight).
6. The cake is done when banana is soft.
If banana does not soften, repeat 4 steps 3-5 or change mixing bowls.
Notes:
1. If you are in an unfamiliar kitchen, wash utensils carefully before and after use.
2. Do not lick mixing bowl after use.
3. If cake rises, leave town.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Inverse ETF aka Bear ETF
Inverse ETF is an exchange-traded fund that is constructed by using various derivatives for the purpose of profiting from a decline in the value of an underlying benchmark or index. Investing in these ETFs is similar to holding various short positions, or using a combination of advanced investment strategies to profit from falling prices. They are also known as a "bear ETF".
One advantage is that these ETFs do not require the investor to hold a margin account as would be the case for investors looking to enter into short positions. There are several inverse ETFs that can be used to profit from declines in broad market indexes such as the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq 100.
In addition, it is possible to buy inverse ETFs that focus on a specific sector such as financials, energy or consumer staples. Most investors look to purchase inverse ETFs so that they can hedge their portfolios against falling prices.
One advantage is that these ETFs do not require the investor to hold a margin account as would be the case for investors looking to enter into short positions. There are several inverse ETFs that can be used to profit from declines in broad market indexes such as the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq 100.
In addition, it is possible to buy inverse ETFs that focus on a specific sector such as financials, energy or consumer staples. Most investors look to purchase inverse ETFs so that they can hedge their portfolios against falling prices.
Turn Your Life Around
One of the best places to start to turn your life around is by doing whatever appears on your mental "I should" list.
Indecision is the thief of opportunity.
Every life form seems to strive to its maximum except human beings. How tall will a tree grow? As tall as it possibly can. Human beings, on the other hand, have been given the dignity of choice. You can choose to be all or you can choose to be less. Why not stretch up to the full measure of the challenge and see what all you can do?
You cannot change your destination overnight, but you can change your direction overnight!
Decision making can sometimes seem like inner civil war. I used to say, "I sure hope things will change." Then I learned that the only way things are going to change for me is when I change.
Don't say, "If I could, I would." Say, "If I can, I will."
It doesn't matter which side of the fence you get off on sometimes. What matters most is getting off! You cannot make progress without making decisions.
- Jim Rohn
We generally change ourselves for one of two reasons: inspiration or desperation. May the former always prevail! If you don't like how things are, change it! You're not a tree!
Indecision is the thief of opportunity.
Every life form seems to strive to its maximum except human beings. How tall will a tree grow? As tall as it possibly can. Human beings, on the other hand, have been given the dignity of choice. You can choose to be all or you can choose to be less. Why not stretch up to the full measure of the challenge and see what all you can do?
You cannot change your destination overnight, but you can change your direction overnight!
Decision making can sometimes seem like inner civil war. I used to say, "I sure hope things will change." Then I learned that the only way things are going to change for me is when I change.
Don't say, "If I could, I would." Say, "If I can, I will."
It doesn't matter which side of the fence you get off on sometimes. What matters most is getting off! You cannot make progress without making decisions.
- Jim Rohn
We generally change ourselves for one of two reasons: inspiration or desperation. May the former always prevail! If you don't like how things are, change it! You're not a tree!
Labels:
Attitude,
Determination,
Quote - Jim Rohn,
Words of Wisdom
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The History Behind Insurance
If risk is like a smoldering coal that may spark a fire at any moment, then insurance is our fire extinguisher.
Countries and their citizens need something to spread risk among large numbers of people and to move risk to entities that can handle it. This is how insurance emerged. Discussing insurance has always been my pet subject. Read on to find out about how insurance evolved and how it can work to protect you from being burned by risk.
The main concept of insurance - that of spreading risk - has been around as long as human existence. Whether it was hunting giant elk in a group to spread the risk of being the one gored to death or shipping cargo in several different caravans to avoid losing the whole shipment to a marauding tribe, people have always been wary of risk.The first written insurance policy appeared in ancient times on a Babylonian obelisk monument with the code of King Hammurabi carved into it. The "Hammurabi Code" was one of the first forms of written laws. These ancient laws were extreme in most respects, but it offered basic insurance in that a debtor didn't have to pay back his loans if some personal catastrophe made it impossible (disability, death, flooding, etc.).
In the dark and middle ages, most craftsmen were trained through the guild system. Apprentices spent their childhoods working for masters for little or no pay. Once they became masters themselves, they paid dues to the guild and trained their own apprentices. The wealthier guilds had large coffers that acted as a type of insurance fund. If a master's practice burned down, a common occurrence in the wooden hovels of medieval Europe, the guild would rebuild it using money from its coffers. If a master were robbed, the guild would cover his obligations until money started to flow in again. If a master were suddenly disabled or killed, the guild would support him or his widow and family. This safety net encouraged more and more people to leave farming and take up trades. As a result, the amount of goods available for trade increased, as did the range of goods and services available. The style of insurance used by guilds is still around today in the form of "group coverage".
The practice of underwriting emerged in the same London coffeehouses that operated as the unofficial stock exchange for the British Empire. In the late 1600s, shipping was just beginning between the New World and the old as colonies were being established and exotic goods were ferried back. A coffeehouse owned by Edward Lloyd, later of Lloyd's of London, was the primary meeting place for merchants, ship owners and others seeking insurance during those dangerous waters era.
A basic system for funding voyages to the new world was established. In the first stage, merchants and companies would seek funding from venture capitalists. The venture capitalists would help find people who wanted to be colonists, usually those from the more desperate areas of London, and would purchase provisions for the voyage. In exchange, the venture capitalists would be guaranteed some of the returns from the goods the colonists would produce or find in the Americas. It was widely believed that you couldn't take two left turns in America without finding a deposit of gold or other precious metals. When it turned out that this wasn't exactly true, venture capitalists still funded voyages for a share of the new bumper crop: tobacco.
After the voyage was secured by venture capitalists, the merchants and ship owners would go to Lloyd's and hand over a copy of the ship's cargo to be read to the investors and underwriters who gathered there. The people interested in taking on the risk for a set premium would sign at the bottom of the manifest beneath the figure indicating what share of the cargo they were taking responsibility for (hence, underwriting). In this way, a single voyage would have multiple underwriters, who would try to spread their risk as well by taking shares in several different voyages.
By 1654, Blaise Pascal, the Frenchman who gave us the first calculator, and his countryman Pierre de Fermat discovered a way to express probabilities and, thereby, understand levels of risk. Pascal's triangle led to the first actuary tables that were, and still are, used when calculating insurance rates. These formalized the practice of underwriting and made insurance more affordable.
In 1666, the great fire of London destroyed around 14,000 buildings. London was still recovering from the plague had that ravaged it a year earlier, and many survivors found themselves without homes. As a response to the chaos and outrage that followed the burning of London, groups of underwriters who had dealt exclusively in marine insurance formed insurance companies that offered fire insurance. Armed with Pascal's triangle, these companies quickly expanded their range of business. By 1693, the first mortality table was created using Pascal's triangle and life insurance soon followed.
Insurance companies thrived in Europe, especially after the industrial revolution. In America, the story was very different. Colonists' lives were fraught with dangers that no insurance company would touch. As a result of lack food, wars with indigenous people and disease, almost three out of every four colonists died in the first 40 years of settlement. It took more than 100 years for insurance to establish itself in America. When it finally did, it brought the maturity in both practice and policies that developed during that same period of time in Europe.
Countries and their citizens need something to spread risk among large numbers of people and to move risk to entities that can handle it. This is how insurance emerged. Discussing insurance has always been my pet subject. Read on to find out about how insurance evolved and how it can work to protect you from being burned by risk.
The main concept of insurance - that of spreading risk - has been around as long as human existence. Whether it was hunting giant elk in a group to spread the risk of being the one gored to death or shipping cargo in several different caravans to avoid losing the whole shipment to a marauding tribe, people have always been wary of risk.The first written insurance policy appeared in ancient times on a Babylonian obelisk monument with the code of King Hammurabi carved into it. The "Hammurabi Code" was one of the first forms of written laws. These ancient laws were extreme in most respects, but it offered basic insurance in that a debtor didn't have to pay back his loans if some personal catastrophe made it impossible (disability, death, flooding, etc.).
In the dark and middle ages, most craftsmen were trained through the guild system. Apprentices spent their childhoods working for masters for little or no pay. Once they became masters themselves, they paid dues to the guild and trained their own apprentices. The wealthier guilds had large coffers that acted as a type of insurance fund. If a master's practice burned down, a common occurrence in the wooden hovels of medieval Europe, the guild would rebuild it using money from its coffers. If a master were robbed, the guild would cover his obligations until money started to flow in again. If a master were suddenly disabled or killed, the guild would support him or his widow and family. This safety net encouraged more and more people to leave farming and take up trades. As a result, the amount of goods available for trade increased, as did the range of goods and services available. The style of insurance used by guilds is still around today in the form of "group coverage".
The practice of underwriting emerged in the same London coffeehouses that operated as the unofficial stock exchange for the British Empire. In the late 1600s, shipping was just beginning between the New World and the old as colonies were being established and exotic goods were ferried back. A coffeehouse owned by Edward Lloyd, later of Lloyd's of London, was the primary meeting place for merchants, ship owners and others seeking insurance during those dangerous waters era.
A basic system for funding voyages to the new world was established. In the first stage, merchants and companies would seek funding from venture capitalists. The venture capitalists would help find people who wanted to be colonists, usually those from the more desperate areas of London, and would purchase provisions for the voyage. In exchange, the venture capitalists would be guaranteed some of the returns from the goods the colonists would produce or find in the Americas. It was widely believed that you couldn't take two left turns in America without finding a deposit of gold or other precious metals. When it turned out that this wasn't exactly true, venture capitalists still funded voyages for a share of the new bumper crop: tobacco.
After the voyage was secured by venture capitalists, the merchants and ship owners would go to Lloyd's and hand over a copy of the ship's cargo to be read to the investors and underwriters who gathered there. The people interested in taking on the risk for a set premium would sign at the bottom of the manifest beneath the figure indicating what share of the cargo they were taking responsibility for (hence, underwriting). In this way, a single voyage would have multiple underwriters, who would try to spread their risk as well by taking shares in several different voyages.
By 1654, Blaise Pascal, the Frenchman who gave us the first calculator, and his countryman Pierre de Fermat discovered a way to express probabilities and, thereby, understand levels of risk. Pascal's triangle led to the first actuary tables that were, and still are, used when calculating insurance rates. These formalized the practice of underwriting and made insurance more affordable.
In 1666, the great fire of London destroyed around 14,000 buildings. London was still recovering from the plague had that ravaged it a year earlier, and many survivors found themselves without homes. As a response to the chaos and outrage that followed the burning of London, groups of underwriters who had dealt exclusively in marine insurance formed insurance companies that offered fire insurance. Armed with Pascal's triangle, these companies quickly expanded their range of business. By 1693, the first mortality table was created using Pascal's triangle and life insurance soon followed.
Insurance companies thrived in Europe, especially after the industrial revolution. In America, the story was very different. Colonists' lives were fraught with dangers that no insurance company would touch. As a result of lack food, wars with indigenous people and disease, almost three out of every four colonists died in the first 40 years of settlement. It took more than 100 years for insurance to establish itself in America. When it finally did, it brought the maturity in both practice and policies that developed during that same period of time in Europe.
Happy New Year 2008!
"tabula rasa" means a blank, clean and new slate (by 16th Century Philosopher John Locke). I learned about this word when I attended my first lecture in NUS back in July 1994!
Today represents a clean slate upon which I can write a new chapter in the story of my life. My wish as I go into 2008 is that I will approach it with a passion to live the life I've dreamed of, to accomplish the goals I'll and have set for myself and that at the end of 2008 I'll be able to look back in satisfaction and look forward in anticipation; not despair and discouragement!
As we enter into this New Year we all tend to have a heightened sense of the opportunities and possibilities that 2008 can bring. The need for goal-setting and goal-reviewing becomes more obvious and clear.
Below are some abbreviated points on goal-setting I have gathered for the New Year. I believe the major reason for setting a goal is for what it makes of you to accomplish it. What it makes of you will always be the far greater value than what you get. That is why goals are so powerful - they are part of the fabric that makes up our lives. And goal-setting is where we create our goals.
Goal-setting is powerful, partly because it provides focus. And focusness is strength; focusness is power. It shapes our dreams. It gives us the ability to hone in on the exact actions we need to perform to achieve everything we desire in life. Goals are great because they cause us to stretch and grow in ways that we never have before. In order to reach our goals we must become better. We must change and grow. The same thing we did last year does not contribute to a better result.
Albert Einstein said that "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them."
Also, goals provide long-term vision in our lives. We all need lots of powerful, long-range goals to help us get past short-term obstacles. Life is designed in such a way that we look long-term and live short-term. We dream for the future and live in the present. Unfortunately, the present can produce many difficult obstacles. But fortunately, the more powerful our goals (because they are inspiring and believable) the more we will be able to act on them in the short-term and guarantee that they will actually come to pass!
What are the key aspects to learn when writing our goals?
1. Evaluation and Reflection.
The only way we can reasonably decide what we want in the future and how we will get there is to first know where we are right now and what our level of satisfaction is for where we are in life. Take time, think through and write down your current situation, then ask this question on each key point - Is that okay?
The purpose of evaluation is two-fold. First, it gives an objective way to look at your accomplishments and pursuit of the vision you have for your life. Secondly, it is to show you where you are so you can determine where you need to go. In other words, it gives you a baseline from which to work.
2. What are Your Dreams and Goals?
These are the dreams and goals that are born out of your own heart and mind. These are the goals that are unique to you and come from who you were created to be and gifted to become. So make a list of all the things you desire for the future. One of the amazing things we have been given as humans is the unquenchable desire to have dreams of a better life, and the ability to establish goals to live out those dreams.
Think of it: We can look deep within our hearts and dream of a better situation for ourselves and our families; dream of better financial lives and better emotional or physical lives; certainly dream of better spiritual lives. But what makes this even more powerful is that we have also been given the ability to not only dream but to pursue those dreams and not just pursue them, but the cognitive ability to actually lay out a plan and strategies (setting goals) to achieve those dreams. Powerful isn't it!
What are your dreams and goals? What you want? Have you ever really sat down and thought through your life values and decided what you really want? Have you ever taken the time to truly reflect, to listen quietly to your heart, to see what dreams live within you? Your dreams are there. Everyone has them. They may live right on the surface, or they may be buried deep from years of others telling you they were foolish, but they are there.
So how do we know what our dreams are? This is an interesting process and it relates primarily to the art of listening. This is not listening to others; it is listening to yourself. If we listen to others, we hear their plans and dreams (and many will try to put their plans and dreams on us). If we listen to others, we can never be fulfilled. We will only chase elusive dreams that are not rooted deep within us. No, we must listen to our own hearts.
Here are some practical steps:
Take time to be quiet. This is something that we don't do enough in this busy world of ours. We rush, rush, rush, and we are constantly listening to noise all around us. The human heart was meant for times of quiet, to peer deep within. It is when we do this that our hearts are set free to soar and take flight on the wings of our own dreams!
Schedule it. No other people. No cell phone. No computer. Just you, a pad, a pen, and your thoughts. Think about what really thrills you. When you are quiet, think about those things that really get your blood moving. What would you love to do, either for fun or for a living? What would you love to accomplish? What would you try if you were guaranteed to succeed? What big thoughts move your heart into a state of excitement and joy?
When you answer these questions you will feel great and you will be in the "dream zone." It is only when we get to this point that we experience what dreams are! Write them down. Don't think of any as too outlandish or foolish - remember, you're dreaming! Let the thoughts fly and take careful record.
Now, prioritize those dreams. Which are most important? Which are most feasible? Which would you love to do the most? Put them in the order in which you will actually try to attain them. Remember, we are always moving toward action, not just dreaming.
3. Use S.M.A.R.T. as a guide.
S.M.A.R.T. means Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-sensitive. We want to set the goals that our heart conceives, our minds believe and that our bodies will carry out.
Specific: Goals are no place to waffle. They are no place to be vague. Ambiguous goals produce ambiguous results. Incomplete goals produce incomplete futures.
Measurable: Always set goals that are measurable. I would say "specifically measurable" to take into account our principle of being specific as well.
Attainable: One of the detrimental things that many people do - and they do it with good intentions - is to set goals that are so high they are unattainable.
Realistic: The root word of realistic is "real." A goal has to be something that we can reasonably make "real" or a "reality" in our lives.You have to be able to say, even if it is a tremendously stretching goal, that yes, indeed, it is entirely realistic -- that you could make it. You may even have to say that it will take x, y, and z to do it, but if those happen, then it can be done. This is in no way to say it shouldn't be a big goal, but it must be realistic.
Time: Every goal should have a time frame attached to it. I think that life itself is much more productive if there is a time frame connected to it. One of the powerful aspects of a great goal is that it has an end, a time in which you are shooting to accomplish it. You start working on it because you know there is an end. As time goes by you work on it because you don't want to get behind. As it approaches, you work diligently because you want to meet the deadline. You may even have to break down a big goal into different parts of measurement and time frames. That is okay. Set smaller goals and work them out in their own time. A S.M.A.R.T. goal has a timeline.
4. Accountability
It is a contract with yourself or someone else. When someone knows what your goals are, they hold you accountable by asking you to "give an account" of where you are in the process of achieving that goal. Accountability puts some teeth into the process. If a goal is set and only one person knows it, does it really have any power? Many times, no. At the very least, it isn't as powerful as if you have one or more other people who can hold you accountable to your goal.
I want to do something remarkable in 2008!
I want to stop procrastinating and start taking responsibility again.
I want a GREAT AND MARVELOUS 2008!!
Passion;
Accomplishment;
Satisfaction!!!
Today represents a clean slate upon which I can write a new chapter in the story of my life. My wish as I go into 2008 is that I will approach it with a passion to live the life I've dreamed of, to accomplish the goals I'll and have set for myself and that at the end of 2008 I'll be able to look back in satisfaction and look forward in anticipation; not despair and discouragement!
As we enter into this New Year we all tend to have a heightened sense of the opportunities and possibilities that 2008 can bring. The need for goal-setting and goal-reviewing becomes more obvious and clear.
Below are some abbreviated points on goal-setting I have gathered for the New Year. I believe the major reason for setting a goal is for what it makes of you to accomplish it. What it makes of you will always be the far greater value than what you get. That is why goals are so powerful - they are part of the fabric that makes up our lives. And goal-setting is where we create our goals.
Goal-setting is powerful, partly because it provides focus. And focusness is strength; focusness is power. It shapes our dreams. It gives us the ability to hone in on the exact actions we need to perform to achieve everything we desire in life. Goals are great because they cause us to stretch and grow in ways that we never have before. In order to reach our goals we must become better. We must change and grow. The same thing we did last year does not contribute to a better result.
Albert Einstein said that "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them."
Also, goals provide long-term vision in our lives. We all need lots of powerful, long-range goals to help us get past short-term obstacles. Life is designed in such a way that we look long-term and live short-term. We dream for the future and live in the present. Unfortunately, the present can produce many difficult obstacles. But fortunately, the more powerful our goals (because they are inspiring and believable) the more we will be able to act on them in the short-term and guarantee that they will actually come to pass!
What are the key aspects to learn when writing our goals?
1. Evaluation and Reflection.
The only way we can reasonably decide what we want in the future and how we will get there is to first know where we are right now and what our level of satisfaction is for where we are in life. Take time, think through and write down your current situation, then ask this question on each key point - Is that okay?
The purpose of evaluation is two-fold. First, it gives an objective way to look at your accomplishments and pursuit of the vision you have for your life. Secondly, it is to show you where you are so you can determine where you need to go. In other words, it gives you a baseline from which to work.
2. What are Your Dreams and Goals?
These are the dreams and goals that are born out of your own heart and mind. These are the goals that are unique to you and come from who you were created to be and gifted to become. So make a list of all the things you desire for the future. One of the amazing things we have been given as humans is the unquenchable desire to have dreams of a better life, and the ability to establish goals to live out those dreams.
Think of it: We can look deep within our hearts and dream of a better situation for ourselves and our families; dream of better financial lives and better emotional or physical lives; certainly dream of better spiritual lives. But what makes this even more powerful is that we have also been given the ability to not only dream but to pursue those dreams and not just pursue them, but the cognitive ability to actually lay out a plan and strategies (setting goals) to achieve those dreams. Powerful isn't it!
What are your dreams and goals? What you want? Have you ever really sat down and thought through your life values and decided what you really want? Have you ever taken the time to truly reflect, to listen quietly to your heart, to see what dreams live within you? Your dreams are there. Everyone has them. They may live right on the surface, or they may be buried deep from years of others telling you they were foolish, but they are there.
So how do we know what our dreams are? This is an interesting process and it relates primarily to the art of listening. This is not listening to others; it is listening to yourself. If we listen to others, we hear their plans and dreams (and many will try to put their plans and dreams on us). If we listen to others, we can never be fulfilled. We will only chase elusive dreams that are not rooted deep within us. No, we must listen to our own hearts.
Here are some practical steps:
Take time to be quiet. This is something that we don't do enough in this busy world of ours. We rush, rush, rush, and we are constantly listening to noise all around us. The human heart was meant for times of quiet, to peer deep within. It is when we do this that our hearts are set free to soar and take flight on the wings of our own dreams!
Schedule it. No other people. No cell phone. No computer. Just you, a pad, a pen, and your thoughts. Think about what really thrills you. When you are quiet, think about those things that really get your blood moving. What would you love to do, either for fun or for a living? What would you love to accomplish? What would you try if you were guaranteed to succeed? What big thoughts move your heart into a state of excitement and joy?
When you answer these questions you will feel great and you will be in the "dream zone." It is only when we get to this point that we experience what dreams are! Write them down. Don't think of any as too outlandish or foolish - remember, you're dreaming! Let the thoughts fly and take careful record.
Now, prioritize those dreams. Which are most important? Which are most feasible? Which would you love to do the most? Put them in the order in which you will actually try to attain them. Remember, we are always moving toward action, not just dreaming.
3. Use S.M.A.R.T. as a guide.
S.M.A.R.T. means Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time-sensitive. We want to set the goals that our heart conceives, our minds believe and that our bodies will carry out.
Specific: Goals are no place to waffle. They are no place to be vague. Ambiguous goals produce ambiguous results. Incomplete goals produce incomplete futures.
Measurable: Always set goals that are measurable. I would say "specifically measurable" to take into account our principle of being specific as well.
Attainable: One of the detrimental things that many people do - and they do it with good intentions - is to set goals that are so high they are unattainable.
Realistic: The root word of realistic is "real." A goal has to be something that we can reasonably make "real" or a "reality" in our lives.You have to be able to say, even if it is a tremendously stretching goal, that yes, indeed, it is entirely realistic -- that you could make it. You may even have to say that it will take x, y, and z to do it, but if those happen, then it can be done. This is in no way to say it shouldn't be a big goal, but it must be realistic.
Time: Every goal should have a time frame attached to it. I think that life itself is much more productive if there is a time frame connected to it. One of the powerful aspects of a great goal is that it has an end, a time in which you are shooting to accomplish it. You start working on it because you know there is an end. As time goes by you work on it because you don't want to get behind. As it approaches, you work diligently because you want to meet the deadline. You may even have to break down a big goal into different parts of measurement and time frames. That is okay. Set smaller goals and work them out in their own time. A S.M.A.R.T. goal has a timeline.
4. Accountability
It is a contract with yourself or someone else. When someone knows what your goals are, they hold you accountable by asking you to "give an account" of where you are in the process of achieving that goal. Accountability puts some teeth into the process. If a goal is set and only one person knows it, does it really have any power? Many times, no. At the very least, it isn't as powerful as if you have one or more other people who can hold you accountable to your goal.
I want to do something remarkable in 2008!
I want to stop procrastinating and start taking responsibility again.
I want a GREAT AND MARVELOUS 2008!!
Passion;
Accomplishment;
Satisfaction!!!
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