Fed's Cut As Expected

Once again, our dear Federal Reserve stepped in and made a half-point rate cut, a move that Wall Street (and me) apparently liked :)

I know you know that many also know that the rate cut didn't come as a complete surprise, as the stock market had been banking on it. They just weren't sure if it would be the half-point cut, or a more cautious quarter-point. The move today puts the federal funds rate target at 3%, the lowest since June 2005!

Once the cut was announced just now, the stock markets went positive: within minutes of the decision, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 100 points at one point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose following the report.

Well, it's positive news (at least for a while), but between this latest cut and last week's unexpected three-quarter point cut, will it be enough to rejuvenate the economy? Let's wait and see. To me, it has been more waiting and less seeing.

Interestingly, the Dow turned right around, gave back every penny of its gains, and ended the day DOWN 37 points at the closing bell! Why? Because most investors in the street aren't dumb. They know what's going on in their own neighborhoods. They see the handwriting on the wall in the headlines. And they realize Bernanke's caught between a rock and a hard place.

On one hand (the rock), the US economy is sinking very slowing, but surely. Home construction plunged 24% in the fourth quarter, the worst since 1981! The economy sputtered to a virtual standstill in the fourth quarter, crawling at the anemic pace of just 0.6% per year! And for the entire year, GDP growth was the worst since 2002, then when the economy was suffering from the aftermath of 9-11, a tech wreck, and a wave of scandal-ridden corporate bankruptcies — all at the same time!

On the other hand (a hard place), resurging inflation that only gets worse as the Fed cuts rates and pumps more money into the market. My favourite inflation hedger, Mr Gold, is my best indicator. Gold is on fire, surging another $7 just today! The U.S. Dollar Index got killed today — down 75 basis points on today's Fed rate cut alone. And then in November, we saw the most dramatic surge in wholesale prices in 22 years! Finally, import prices surged by a staggering 10.9%, signaling much, much higher inflation ahead!

This is serious!
This is scary!!
This is shocking!!!

It means that long before the Fed's rate cuts begin to have the desired impact on the economy, they're already beginning to backfire with more inflation. Do you see it now? Are you selling too? I am, and I suggest you do the same, at least for short term. Leave emotion out of the equation. Just clear your stock holdings and keep at least 70% cash, 20% Bonds, & 10% equities if you must.

Good luck, or else, good bye!!!