Shifting Growth Dynamics

Previously, I blogged about the rationale behind surging global stock prices, when in fact the main engine of global growth, the U.S. economy, appears to be faltering. The question is: Why has the DJIA surged to record highs above 13,000 for the first time - with U.S. GDP slowing in Q1 to the lowest levels in four years?

Do you know that most other global markets & economies are performing much better than the U.S. In fact, so far this year the DJIA is only up a bit over 5%. But the Dow Jones World Index (excluding U.S. stocks) has gained nearly10%, & Chinese mainland shares (still one of the hottest markets going) are up about 40%!

But there's another key factor behind the strength in U.S. stocks. Among the best performers in the DJIA recently have been big, multi-national firms. All of these giants generate a significant amount of revenue & profits from overseas markets. The sliding U.S. dollar helps boost the international sales & profits of these firms. In addition, these companies also benefit from stronger organic growth in foreign markets as well. This is one very good reason why I expect large-cap U.S. growth stocks to perform well this year. But for global investors, much better returns can perhaps be earned by venturing into other markets.

International stocks are again leading the pack this year because both economic & earnings growth rates are much stronger overseas. In other words, international markets appear to be successfully decoupling from the United States. It would seem that the global economy depends less on U.S. consumer spending than many people think. According to data from Morgan Stanley, exports to the U.S. "account for only about 2.9% of Japan's GDP, compared with 4% in previous decades."

For the European Union, which seems to be in the midst of a sustained uptrend in growth, exports to the U.S. amount to just 2.4% of GDP. Emerging nations too, are increasingly selling commodities & other goods to China & India, lessening their historical dependence on the U.S. export market. Many nations throughout Asia & Latin America, even in Europe, are seeing an increase in demand for raw materials from China. Countries like Brazil, Chile, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, even Japan are benefiting from both growing trade with China, & increased wealth creation internally.

Nations with relatively open & efficient financial markets, with stable currencies, low or falling debt, stable (or better yet declining) interest rates & trade surpluses (unlike the U.S.), are among those that look particularly attractive going forward. So once you decide to invest elsewhere, it's a matter of choosing the countries with the most attractive stock market valuations on a relative basis. This list includes several of those countries mentioned above.

Bottom line: these shifting growth dynamics should help protect many international economies from a sharp slowdown in U.S. demand, as global trade marches on. Of course, you must be prepared for bumps in the road along the way. Global stocks - especially the emerging markets - have been on a tear in recent years, so a meaningful correction sometime soon would not be all that surprising. IMHO, you should view such a pullback in share prices as a great buying opportunity - to get even further invested overseas - as opposed to increasing exposure to U.S. markets.

And don't say I never say hor, for I said here already.

An Engineer in Hell

An engineer dies & reports to the pearly gates. St. Peter checks his dossier & says, "Ah, you're an engineer. You're in the wrong place."

So the engineer reports to the gates of hell & is let in. Pretty soon, the engineer gets dissatisfied with the level of comfort in hell, & starts designing & building improvements. After a while, they've got air conditioning & flush toilets & escalators, & the engineer is a pretty popular guy.

One day God calls Satan up on the telephone & says with a sneer, "So, how's it going down there in hell?"

Satan replies, "Hey, things are going great. We've got air conditioning, flush toilets, & escalators, & there's no telling what this engineer is going to come up with next."

God replies, "What??? You've got an engineer? That's a mistake. He should never have gotten down there; send him up here."

Satan says, "No way. I like having an engineer on the staff & I'm keeping him."

God says, "Send him back up here or I'll sue."

Satan laughs uproariously & answers, "Yeah, right. And just where are YOU going to get a lawyer?"

Military Super Computer

The U.S. succeeded in building a computer able to solve any strategic or tactical problem. Military leaders are assembled in front of the new machine & instructed to feed a difficult tactical problem into it. They describe a hypothetical situation to the computer & then ask the pivotal question: "Attack or Retreat?"

The computer hums away for an hour & then comes up with the answer: "Yes."

The generals look at each other, bewildered. Finally one of them submits a second request to the computer: "Yes what?"

Instantly the computer responded: "Yes sir."

Warning to all PC Users!

A new device has been introduced to the marketplace that is a huge danger to anyone who uses a PC that is not theirs. It is known as a key tracker & it sits between the keyboard & the PC. As can be seen in the pictures it is very discreet but is probably one of the most dangerous items of equipment to personal information that is readily available. These devices record every key that is pressed on the keyboard. Due to it’s position (it sits between the keyboard & the PC) the information is logged by the tracker before the PC knows about it & as such is very difficult for the PC to detect. They are available in both USB & PS2 formats so pretty much any PC can be logged. The user puts the tracker in line, leaves it there for a set amount of time & then retrieves it. They can then download the data onto their own PC.

If you intend to use a PC that is not yours (ie hotel business centre, internet café, airport etc) I would advise looking at the back of the PC to see if one of these trackers has been placed in line (scrambling under a desk is the better alternative to losing your email details). If you cannot get to see the back of the PC, I would suggest you don’t use it for anything personal. If a tracker is there & you do not notice it, whoever placed it there (could be any user of that PC before you) will be able to recall all of your keystrokes – logins, passwords etc.

These trackers cost less than £30 & they are definitely out there already.

Being a Winner

"Being a winner is an attitude, a way of life, a self-concept. It’s a heads-up, full-speed ahead way of living & being. It’s wanting the ball at crunch time because you believe in yourself. It’s an expectation of success that you can master with dicipline & determination."

- Denis Waitley.

The Alarm Clock Perspective

"When I was in college, I heard someone say something that has been with me ever since. It was something that demonstrated to me a positive attitude & the choice to take something that most people dread, & change it into a motivating factor.

He called the alarm clock the "opportunity clock."

When does an alarm go off? When something bad is happening! Well, waking up isn't bad. Waking up is good! In fact, waking up is an opportunity. Each new day brings with it the opportunity to enjoy our families & other people. It enables us the opportunity to work hard, & earn a living that will enable us in turn to provide for others & ourselves. Each day brings us the opportunity to help others & serve them in such a way to make our communities better places.

We get the opportunity again to dream & achieve those dreams. We have the opportunity to bask in the glory at the top of the mountain or learn valuable lessons as we walk through the valley. What opportunities! It's all in the perspective & attitude folks. I bet you can't wait to go to bed tonight & set your opportunity clock for tomorrow morning!"

- Chris Widener

What is Truely Important in Life

Below are 10 reminders I picked up from a book by Dr Denis Waitley, Safari to the Soul.

1. Simplify our lives. Stop collecting. Start celebrating for no apparent reason.
2. Gather memories instead of Memorabilia.
3. Do some genealogy about our family ancestors. What were their lives like? What legacy did they pass on to us? What did we learn & love most about our parents?
4. What will we gladly give up to improve the quality of our lives?
5. What will we never give up, no matter what?
6. Dream as if we had forever. Live as if this was the only day.
7. Don't just treat everyone the way we want to be treated. Treat everyone the way they should be treated to believe they can reach their full potential, based upon their own beliefs & heritage.
8. Never judge a person by her cow-dung house. She may be healthier, happier and wiser than us, & probably is.
9. It's not nice to fool with Mother Nature.
10. Love what you have, even if you don't have all that you'd love.

I recognized we are all different, but at the same time, we are all on a safari heading in the same direction. Let's make the journey meaningful & valuable.

The Tyranny of the Urgent

"Of all the wisdom I have gained, the most important is the knowledge that time & health are two precious assets that we rarely recognize or appreciate until they have been depleted. As with health, time is the raw material of life. You can use it wisely, waste it or even kill it.

To accomplish all we are capable of, we would need a hundred lifetimes. If we had forever in our mortal lives, there would be no need to set goals, plan effectively or set priorities. We could squander our time & perhaps still manage to accomplish something, if only by chance. Yet in reality, we're given only this one life span on earth to do our earthly best.

Each human being now living has exactly 168 hours per week. Scientists can't invent new minutes, & even the super rich can't buy more hours. Queen Elizabeth the First of England, the richest, most powerful woman on earth of her era, whispered these final words on her deathbed: "All my possessions for a moment of time!"

We worry about things we want to do – but can't – instead of doing the things we can do – but don't. How often have you said to yourself, "Where did the day go? I accomplished nothing," or "I can't even remember what I did yesterday." That time is gone, & you never get it back.

Staring at the compelling distractions on a television screen is one of the major consumers of time. You can enjoy & benefit from the very best it has to offer in about seven total hours of viewing per week. But the average person spends more than thirty hours per week in a semi-stupor, escaping from the priorities & goals he or she never gets around to setting. The irony is that the people we are watching are having fun achieving their own goals, making money, having us look at them enjoying their careers.

Even so, time is amazingly fair & forgiving. No matter how much time you've wasted in the past, you still have an entire today. If you've just frittered away an hour procrastinating, you will still be given the next hour to start on priorities. Time management contains one great paradox: No one has enough time, and yet everyone has all there is. Time is not the problem; the problem is separating the urgent from the important.

Every decision we make has an "opportunity cost." Every decision forfeits all other opportunities we had before we made it. We can't be two places at the same time. Even though we all are aware of the tradeoffs of "quality time vs. quantity time" in our relationships, we are not used to thinking specifically about how our decisions cost us other opportunities. Without this understanding, our decisions will often be unfocused & unrelated to helping us achieve our most important goals.

You may have heard the story about the analogy of the "circus juggler" to each of us as we try to balance our personal and professional priorities. I have heard the story repeated by many keynote speakers & have used it in previous books, but have never been able to trace the identity of the original author.

When the circus juggler drops a ball, he lets it bounce and picks it up on the next bounce without losing his rhythm or concentration. He keeps right on juggling. Many times we do the same thing. We lose our jobs, but get another one on the first or second bounce. We may drop the ball on a sale, an opportunity to move ahead, or in a relationship, and we either pick it up on the rebound or get a new one thrown in to replace what we just dropped.

However, some of the balls or priorities we juggle don't bounce. The more urgent priorities associated with self-imposed deadlines & workloads have more elasticity than the precious, delicate relationships which are as fragile as fine crystal. Balance involves distinguishing between the priorities we juggle that bounce from the ones labeled "loved ones," "health," & "moral character" that may shatter if we drop them.

The reason I always ask my seminar attendees to list the benefits of reaching their goals is so they can arrange them in the true order of importance to them & give them a sufficient amount of attention as they juggle them within their time constraints. Handle your priorities with care. Some of them just don't bounce!

To live a rich, balanced life we need to be more in conscious control of our habits & lifestyles. Actualized individuals have a regular exercise routine. They pay attention to nutrition, with lean source protein & fiber-based carbohydrates as their basic food choices. They relax through musical, cultural, artistic, & family activities. They get sufficient sleep & rest to meet the next day renewed & invigorated.

In addition to blocking periods of time for recreation & vacations, they also schedule large, uninterrupted periods of work on their most important projects. Contrary to popular notions, most books, works of art, invention, & musical compositions are created during uninterrupted time frames, not by a few lines, strokes, or notes every so often. Every book or audio program I have written has been done with the discipline of twelve to fifteen hours per day during a specific block of time. True enough, I may have sacrificed a ski trip or an escape vacation once or twice. But by trying to focus on prime projects in prime time, the opportunity costs have been outweighed by the return on invested resources.

With your material, time and energy resources allocated well, you should be able to use your innovative powers to focus on goal achievement. Effective priority management creates freedom. Freedom provides opportunity to make decisions. We make our decisions & our decisions, over time, make us. Freedom from urgency… that's what will allow us to live a rich & rewarding life. You may have thought your problem was "time starvation," when in truth, it was in the way you assigned priorities in your decision-making process. Have you allowed the urgent to crowd out the important?

Each day we will continue to encounter deadlines we must meet & "fires," not necessarily of our own making, we must put out. Endless urgent details will always beg for attention, time & energy. What we seldom realize is that the really important things in our life don't make such strict demands on us, & therefore we usually assign them a lower priority. Our loved ones understand when we are preoccupied with our urgent business, but it's hard for us to understand, many years later, whey they appear preoccupied when we finally find some time for them. Harry Chapin's classic song, "The Cat's in the Cradle," is still a mirror reflecting our priorities.

All the important arenas in our life are there awaiting our decisions. But they don't beg us to give them our time. The local university doesn't call us to advance our education & improve our life skills. I have never received a call or e-mail from the health club I joined insisting that I show up & work out for thirty minutes each day. My bathroom scale has never insisted that I lose thirty pounds. The grocery clerks have never made me put back on the shelves the junk food I put in the cart, nor has a fast-food restaurant ever refused me a double cheeseburger & large fries because of my high cholesterol. Nor have I ever been subpoenaed by the ocean or the mountains to appear for relaxation & solitude. Yet I receive hundreds of urgent phone messages & e-mails each week from people with deadlines.

You see, it's the easiest thing in the world to neglect the important & give in to the urgent. One of the greatest skills you can ever develop in your life is not only to tell the two apart, but to be able to assign the correct amount of time to each.

Beginning tomorrow, throughout the day, & every day thereafter, stop & ask yourself this question: "Is what I'm doing right now important to my health, well-being & mission in life, & for my loved ones?" Your affirmative answer will free you forever, from the tyranny of the urgent."

- Denis Waitley

Risk & Security

The greatest risk in life is to wait for & depend upon others for your own security.

The greatest security is to take the risk by deliberately planning & then acting on those plans to ensure your personal freedom & independence.

Be Different

To be self-reliant adults, we need to set some guidelines. Here's one I have on been different:

Be different, if it means higher personal & professional standards.
Be different, if it means being more gracious & considerate to others.
Be different, if it means being cleaner, neater & better groomed than the group.
Be different, if it means putting more time & effort into all you do.
And be different, if it means taking the calculated risk.

- Denis Waitley