King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies

King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies
Gather ye rose buds while ye may, old time is still a flying;
and this same rose that you see today, tomorrow will be dying.
CarpeDiem: Seize the Day!
- Dead Poets Society

Monday, April 16, 2007

The Golden Rule

Tony's Sagami's golden rule:
"Sell What China Sells!"
"Buy What China Buys!"

Another way of looking at it is:
"Whatever China buys, price goes up!"
"Whatever China sells, price comes down!"

Obvious isn't it? That's Economics 101.
Things that China keeping demanding, chances are the prices are going to increase.
And whatever you can make or manufacture, China will make it even cheaper. You simply can't match!

In other words, get the heck away from the companies that sell the same thing as China's selling. It's unlikely they're going to be able to compete. So don't buy PC makers! And likewise, don't buy steel.
Instead, buy the resources that China is buying, or the companies that provide those resources.


Happy hunting, though.

The Struggle Within

The Struggle Within
- A Poem by Liam Murray

The Darkness consumes me it clouds my mind
Tearing at me from within my body
My Soul and my Self vainly fight back
In a war that cannot be won.

The hatred, the anger, the lust all grow
Purging any ounce of the man I once knew
Paranoia thrives in the shell that was me
But part of me remains.

A part of me remains inside
Locked in self-loathing in what I've become
That part of me wishes for an end to it all
That part of me wishes for death.

My Will now fights a battle to the end
A small light surrounded by impenetrable darkness
Which side of my nature will win the war?
Only time will end this fateful score.

A Web of Secrets, Struggles and Love


"The Greatest Battle Lies Within"
- Spider-Man 3 (Trailer)
I
When his suit suddenly changes, turning jet-black and enhancing his powers, it transforms Peter as well, bringing out the dark, vengeful side of his personality that he is struggling to control. Under the influence of the suit, Peter becomes overconfident and starts to neglect the people who care about him most. Forced to choose between the seductive power of the new suit and the compassionate hero he used to be, Peter must overcome his personal demons as two of the most-feared villains yet, Sandman and Venom, gather unparalleled power and a thirst for retribution to threaten Peter and everyone he loves.

Possible Near Term Market Correction?

It is now the second longest period since the DJIA suffered at least a 10% correction. The latest count is 1,022 trading days, just exceeding the 1956 figure of 1,020 days but still second to 1997 which was 1,723 days, the other eight such periods since 1929 ranged from 617 to 960 days. The important words above are “at least” because the awaited, inevitable correction, when it arrives, could be, and probably will be, much bigger than 20%!

Stephen Roach, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley recently wrote:
“The bursting of two bubbles seven years apart – dot-com and housing - holds the key to the macro outlook. While different in many respects, these sharp swings in asset markets share one thing in common – the initial belief that any spill-overs would be limited and that the rest of the economy and the financial markets would remain unscathed. Just as that view turned out to be wrong in the early 2000s, I fear a similar outcome today…. What’s especially worrisome about the current situation is that real GDP growth has already slowed to just over 2% over the past three quarters - far short of the 3.7% annualized pace of the previous three years. Yet this down-shift is largely an outgrowth of a steep recession in homebuilding activity, together with collateral impacts of a recent downtrend in business capital spending. By contrast, the American consumer has barely flinched, with average gains of 3.2% in real consumption since mid-2006 representing only a modest downshift from the astonishing 3.7% growth trend of the past decade. Should the consumer move into a more meaningful period of consolidation – precisely the risk as equity extraction from residential property now slows in a post-housing bubble climate – then macro contagion could become an increasingly serious problem”.

Has subprime meltdown been contained
It is generally thought that the recent stock market turbulence is now over and although the rally in major markets, particularly in the US and the UK, have failed as yet to exceed the year’s earlier highs, nonetheless it is expected that will happen soon. Should stock markets however fall from current levels, it could all get very ugly, very quickly! Two key levels to watch are the FTSE 100, at 6000 and the DJIA, at 12000. Any near-term weakness that brings prices below those levels would subsequently see selling vigorously accelerate.

I am expecting the worst and that the driver of market deterioration will be a developing credit crunch. The optimists believe that the US sub-prime mortgage market can be contained; however, loose lending practices are everywhere. For the record, I am receiving at least 5 calls a week from telemarketers tasked by the banks to offer me low or no interest-bearing credit. Such destructive lending practices typically happen at asset market peaks.

Q1 2007 saw a record $1,000 billion total of M&A deals with a large percentage of these financed using covenant-lite loans. The IMF consider this situation serious enough to issue an important warning to the private equity industry saying that a large scale collapse in the sector is increasingly possible and that many of the major deals currently being mulled over could prove a disappointment. It also said that the potential problems with the buy-out industry were among the biggest risks facing the global economy.

Prospective Outlook for Corporate profitability
Q4 2006 was the 14th consecutive quarter of double digit profit growth, it is generally agreed that has now ended. For the Q1 2007, the average rise in profits was as low as 3%. But as recent as Jan 07 some estimated the figure was going to be much higher, at 8.7%! Declining profit growth will tend to restrict even further the low current levels of corporate America’s capital expenditure. Capital expenditure to one is revenue to another; so lower profits will generate lower capital expenditure; lowering further profit expectations, etc…. And over the last 2-3 weeks the US service sector, so important for economic growth in the developed world, appears to be slowing.


So, be warned, my friend. Given the likelihood of meaningful consumer spill overs, I would place about a 60% probability of an outright recession scenario in late 2007 and early 2008. Your call.

Fiat Money

To me, 'fiat money' is simply paper currency printed, enjoys legal tender status but not backed, pegged or decreed by gold.

Here are other more qualified quotes:

"Lenin was certainly right. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
- John Maynard Keynes, `The Economic Consequences of The Peace'

“Fiat money is the cause of inflation, and the amount which people lose in purchasing power is exactly the amount which was taken from them and transferred to their governments by this process.”
- G. Edward Griffin, “The Creature from Jekyll Island”

“A fiat monetary system allows power and influence to fall into the hands of those who control the creation of new money, and to those who get to use the money or credit early in its circulation. The insidious and eventual cost falls on unidentified victims who are usually oblivious to the cause of their plight. This system of legalized plunder (though not constitutional) allows one group to benefit at the expense of another. An actual transfer of wealth goes from the poor and the middle class to those in privileged financial positions.”
- Congressman Ron Paul, "Paper Money and Tyranny"

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
- Henry Ford

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a monied aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
- Thomas Jefferson

Gold at high of $690 today!

Gold has risen from an average price of $271 an ounce in 2001 to an average of $673 last year. While I am writing this now, gold is trending around $690!
Some reckons that gold could post a similarly strong performance in the years to come, rising to more than $1,500 an ounce in the next few years - which would still be no higher than its previous 1980 peak (adjusted for inflation) of around $850 an ounce.
Independent metals research group GFMS reckons we could see an average of $725 in the second half of this year, and $850 next. One thing, Central banks are becoming less keen to sell as the price ticks ever higher, while many nations with massive paper currency reserves, reportedly including China and Russia, are trying to increase their gold reserves.
There are various reasons why the upbeat on gold price - the fragile dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions are just two key reasons. But one main point is that investment demand, at $14bn, is still tiny in relative terms.
There is huge upside potential should big money decide to move into gold for any reason. Even without any particular trigger, there are long-term investors such as pension funds raising their stake in commodities generally, giving gold a rise up with all the others.
I reckon everyone should hold about 10% of their portfolio in gold, more if you are risk taker. Believe me, there are good reasons for having at least some exposure to the yellow metal in your portfolio.

Even Alan Greenspan - the interest-rate maestro, is a passionate believer in the wealth-protecting powers of gold. The Sunday Times quotes Greenspan‘s reaction to the UK‘s decision to sell gold. In May 1999, he said: “Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world… Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.”
Last week, despite the slowing US economy, core inflation in the US is running at around 2.7%, compared to the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ of around 2%.
That will make it far harder for investors to rely on a ‘Bernanke put’ just as they relied on the ‘Greenspan put’ to bail them out when hard times loomed. And that’s just another good reason to keep holding onto gold.

Good luck, and Gold luck!

The Wife & Her Big Mouth

A couple are going out for a night on the town. They're all dolled up, ready to go; the lights left on, the dog put out.
But just as the taxi arrives and they step out of the house, the dog darts back inside and won't come out. They don't want to leave the dog inside, so the husband goes upstairs to find it, while the wife goes to wait in the taxi.
Not wanting it known that the house will be empty, she explains to the driver that her husband had just gone "to say good-bye to my mother".
A few minutes later, the husband gets into the cab.
"Sorry I took so long," he says.

"Stupid bitch was hiding under the bed and I had to poke her with a coat-hanger to get her to come out! Then I had to wrap her in a blanket to keep her from scratching and biting me as I hauled her ass downstairs and tossed her in the backyard!
She'd better not sh!t in the vegetable garden again!".
The silence in the cab was deafening.

Looking for an Insurance Policy?

The Husband of a pregnant wife was thinking of buying insurance for his unborn baby.
So he asked Great Eastern and the agent said,
"Don't worry, man, we'll provide insurance right from the basket to the casket !"
The man was impressed but thought that he should probably seek another opinion.
He then approached Prudential.
The agent replied, "Oh, we have a new insurance policy which can protect your unborn child from the womb right up to the tomb !"
The man was stunned but thought that maybe all salesmen liked to bullshit.
So he decided to see the agent from AIA. He told the AIA agent what Prudential and Great Eastern had to offer. The AIA agent then think for a while and then said "Tell you something, we've one that is even better than Great Eastern or Prudential.
We'll insure your child from time of your ejaculation till your child's resurrection !"

Wah! Brother AIA, you win lah...you must be the Christian insurance agent...

Funny T-Shirts Spotted

1. "Frankly, Scallop, I Don't Give a Clam"
2. "That's It! I'm Calling Grandma!" (seen on an 8 year old)
3. "Wrinkled Was Not One of the Things I Wanted to Be When I Grew Up"
4. "Procrastinate Now"
5. "Rehab Is for Quitters"
6. "My Dog Can Lick Anyone"
7. "I Have a Degree in Liberal Arts - Do You Want Fries With That?"
8. "Finally 21, and Legally Able to Do Everything I've Been Doing Since 15"
9. "ALL MEN ARE IDIOTS, AND I MARRIED THEIR KING"
10. "FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION. It comes bundled with the software"
11. "Do you believe in love at first sight? Or should I walk by again? "
12. "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a cash advance"
13. "STUPIDITY IS NOT A HANDICAP. Park elsewhere!"
14. "Live Bait "
15. "He who dies with the most toys is nonetheless dead"
16. "Time's fun when you're having flies.......Kermit the Frog"
17. "POLICE STATION TOILET STOLEN .... Cops have nothing to go on."
18. "FOR SALE: Iraqi rifle. Never fired. Dropped once."
19. "HECK IS WHERE PEOPLE GO WHO DON'T BELIEVE IN GOSH"
20. "A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS, but it uses up a thousand times the memory."

The Less Traveled Road...

I spoke about crossroads in my entry dated 11 Mar 07.
On a poetic scale, I found this poem by Robert Frost and it seem to capture something of that crossroads moment in my life. Here it is:

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, I stood
And looked down one as far a I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day,
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence;
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I –
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

(From: The Poetry of Robert Frost, 1969)

William Bennett, former US Secretary of Education, summarized this poem in a single statement when he said, “Courage does not follow rutted pathways.”

May you find your own trail in life and set that path aflame with passion.
For me, I will blaze my own!

Learn the 5 Language of Apology Part II

Learn the second language: Accepting responsibility.
This says, “I was wrong.”
When you speak this language, you accept responsibility for your failures and refrain from rationalizing your own bad behavior or blaming others for it.
Show the offended person that you fully own up to what you did and understand that it was wrong.
And remember to keep the "but" to yourself.
Refrain from saying, "I was wrong but you shouldn't have..."
Sometimes we are so tempted to defend our 10% fault while trying to highlight other's 90% mistake.

Don't!
Accept responsibility, even if it is only 5% of your fault
(which, honestly, it is not the case most of the time).

Btw, we are only at the 2nd marker. More tomorrow.

Adapted from:
The Five Languages of Apology: How to Experience Healing in All Your Relationships
by Gary Chapman and Jennifer Thomas, 2006

A Special Bank

Take some time to ponder this:
Imagine there is a bank that credits your account each morning with $86,400. It carries over no balance from day to day. Every evening it deletes whatever part of the balance you failed to use during the day. What would you do?

Draw out every cent, of course! Each of us has such a bank. It's name is TIME.


Every morning, it credits you with 86,400 seconds.
Every night it writes off, as lost, whatever of this you have failed to invest to good purpose.
It carries over no balance. It allows no overdraft.
Each day it opens a new account for you.
Each night it burns the remains of the day.
If you fail to use the day's deposits, the loss is yours.
There is no going back. There is no drawing against the "tomorrow".
You must live in the present on today's deposits.
Invest it so as to get from it the utmost in health, happiness, and success!
The clock is running. Make the most of today.