King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies

King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies
Gather ye rose buds while ye may, old time is still a flying;
and this same rose that you see today, tomorrow will be dying.
CarpeDiem: Seize the Day!
- Dead Poets Society

Saturday, November 15, 2008

My Last Movie in 2008 - Ip Man

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In this bio-pic, Ip Man, one of the earliest Wing Chun martial arts exponents credited to have propagated its popularity, gets portrayed as the best of the best in 1930s Fo Shan, China, where the bustling city has its own "Martial Arts Street" where countless of martial arts schools have set up shop to fuel the craze of kung fu training. With each new school, the master will pay their respects to Ip Man and to challenge him to a duel. Ip Man, an aristocrat who spends most of his quality time developing and perfecting his brand of martial arts, will take them on behind closed doors, so as not to damage his opponents' reputation nor embarrass them in public. His humility is his virtue, and his style is never violent or aggressive, which often gets assumed and mistaken for being effeminate, since Wing Chun after all was founded by a woman.
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The bulk of the story gets set in the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese war, and it's not all fight and no story. With this historical setting, at times it does seem that there is an air of familiarity with the type of stories told, with how the Japanese Imperial Army had made life really miserable for the Chinese, and how the Chinese being fragmented in spirit, fail to unite during dire straits. More often than not, martial arts become a unifying force.
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I'm no Wing Chun practitioner, but Donnie Yen has this marvelous calm and zen-like approach with his Ip Man character in taking out his opponents quite effectively with the minimal of moves. Like Huo Yuan Jia, he doesn't deliver the killing blows to friendly opponents, but rather simulates the various hit points, which actually calls for some astonishing control of strength and precision. This approach will change, of course, as the opponents become anything but friendly. And unlike the usual martial arts stance of crouching low, here we see him standing tall and striking with such precision and efficiency, it's like poetry in motion with some astounding closed quarter combat utilizing plenty of upper limb strength.
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What a way to bring 2008 to a cinematic closure with this wonderfully crafted show. Bravo to Donnie and Master Ip!

Vision - The Things to Come

All of the great achievers of the past have been visionary figures; they were men and women who projected into the future. They thought of what could be, rather than what already was, and then they moved themselves into action, to bring these things into fruition.

Bob Proctor

Good men say, "When I see it, I will believe".
Great men say, "When I believe, I will see it"!

Eagleboy, on 20 Jan 2009

Cheers to the great men!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Change...

Things do not change; we change.

– Henry David Thoreau

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

我还想她

歌曲:我还想她
歌手:林俊杰

专辑:jj陆

泪水将我淹没到底谁该难过
究竟是谁放掉这段感情
我才终于明白办不到的承诺
就成了枷锁
现实中幸福永远缺货

请告诉她
我不爱她
笑着难过
自我惩罚
想终止这一切挣扎
横了心说真心谎话

别告诉她
我还想她
恨总比爱容易放下
当泪水堵住了胸口
就让沉默代替所有回答

我才终于明白办不到的承诺
就成了枷锁
现实中幸福永远缺货

请告诉她
我不爱她
笑着难过
自我惩罚
想终止这一切挣扎
横了心说真心谎话

别告诉她
我还想她
恨总比爱容易放下
当泪水堵住了胸口
就让沉默代替所有回答

我不爱
我不痛
我不懂
我的心早已掏空
真心话言不由衷

请告诉她
我不爱她
笑着难过
自我惩罚
想终止这一切挣扎
横了心说真心谎话

别告诉她
我还想她
恨总比爱容易放下
当泪水堵住了胸口
就让沉默代替所有回答

别告诉她
我还想她
就让沉默代替所有回答

Friday, November 7, 2008

The Second Decision for Success

I will seek wisdom!

Knowing that wisdom waits to be gathered, I will actively search her out. My past can never be changed, but I can changed the future by changing my actions today. I will train my eyes and ears to read and listen to books and recordings that bring about positive changes in my personal relationships and a greater understanding of my fellowman. No longer will I bombard my mind with materials that feed my doubts and fears. I will read and listen only to what increases my belief in myself and my future.

I will seek wisdom. I will choose my friends with care.

I am who my friends are. I speak their language, and I wear their clothes. I share their opinions and their habits. From this moment forward, I will choose to associate with people whose lives and lifestyles I admire. If I associate with chickens, I will learn to scratch at the ground and squabble over crumbs. If I associate with eagles, I will learn to soar to great heights. I am an eagle. It is my destiny to fly.

I will seek wisdom. I will listen to the counsel of wise men.

The words of a wise man are like raindrops on dry ground. They are precious and can be used for immediate results. Only the blade of grass that catches a raindrop will prosper and grow. The person who ignores wise counsel is like the blade of grass untouched by the rain - soon to wither and die. When I counsel with just myself, I can make decisions only according to what I already know. By counseling with a wise man, I add his knowledge ad experience to my own and dramatically increase my success.

I will seek wisdom. I will be a servant to others.

A wise man will cultivate a servant's spirit, for that particular attribute attracts people like no other. As I humbly serve others, their wisdom will be freely shared with me. Often, the person who develops a servant's spirit becomes wealthy beyond measure. Many times, a servant has the ear of the king, and a humble servant often becomes a king, for he is the popular choice of the people. He who serves the most grows the fastest.

I will become a humble servant. I will not look for someone to open my door - I will be excited to open the door for someone. I will not be distressed when no one is available to help me - I will be excited when I am available to hep.

I will be a servant to others. I will listen to the counsel of wise men. I will choose my friends with care.

I will seek wisdom!

(Extracts from the book I read: The Traveler's Gift)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

The First Decision for Success

The buck stops here!

From this moment forward, I will accept responsibility for my past. I understand that the beginning of wisdom is to accept the responsibility for my own problems and that by accepting responsibility for my past, I free myself to move into a bigger, brighter future of my own choosing.

Never again will I blame my parents, my spouse, my children, my co-workers, for my present situation. Neither my education nor lack of one, my genetics, or the circumstancial ebb and flow of everyday life will affect my future in a negative way. If I allow myself to blame these uncontrollable forces for my lack of success, I will be forever caught in a web of the past. I will look forward. I will not let my history control my destiny.

The buck stops here. I accept responsibility for my past. I am responsible for my success.

I am where I am today - mentally, physically, spiritually, emotionlly, and financially - because of decisions I have made. My decisions have always been governed by my thinking. Therefore, I am where I am today because of how I think. Today, I will begin the process of changing where I am - mentally, physically, spiritually, emotionally and financially - by changing the way I think.

My thoughts will be constructive, not destructive. My mind will live in the solutions of the future. It will not dwell in the problems of the past. I will seek the association of those who are working and striving to bring about positive changes in the world. I will never seek comfort by associating with those who have decided to be comfortable.

When faced with the opportunity to make a decision, I will make one. I understand that God did not put in me the ability to always make right decisions. He did, however, put in me the ability to make a decision and then make it right. The rise and fall of my emotional tide will not deter me from my course. When I make a decision, I will stand behind it. My energy will go into making the decision. I will waste none on second thoughts. My life will not be an apology. It will be a statement.

The buck stops here. I control my thoughts. I control my emotions.

In the future, when I am tempted to ask the question, "Why me?" I will immediately counter with the answer: "Why not me?" Challenges are gifts, opportunities to learn. Problems are the common thread running through the lives of great men and women. In times of adversity, I will not here a problem to deal with; I will have a choice to make. My thoughts will be clear. I will make the right choice. Adversity is preparation for greatness. I will accept this preparation. Why me? Why not me? I will be prepared for something great!

I accept responsibility for my past. I control my thoughts, I control my emotions. I am responsible for my success.

The buck stops here, indeed...

(Extracts from the book I read - The Traveler's Gift)

Sunday, November 2, 2008

What All People Want?

All people want and have the right to be treated with dignity and respect - No exceptions.

- Gail Pursell Elliott

Thursday, October 30, 2008

如果你也听说

歌曲:如果你也听说
歌手:张惠妹

专辑:star

突然发现站了好久
不知道要往哪走
还不想回家的我
再多人陪只会更寂寞

许多话题关于我
就连我也有听过
我的快乐要被认可
委屈却没有人诉说

夜把心洋葱般剥落
拿掉防卫剩下什么
为什么脆弱时候
想你更多

如果你也听说
有没有想过我
想普通交朋友
还是你依然会心疼我
好多好多的话想对你说
悬着一颗心没着落
要怎么附和
舍不得又无可奈何

如果你也听说
会不会相信我
对流言会附和
还是你知道我还是我
跌跌撞撞才明白了许多
懂我的人就你一个
想到你想起我
胸口依然温柔

许多话题关于我
就连我也有听过
我想我宁可都沉默
其实反而显得做作

夜把心洋葱般剥落
拿掉防卫剩下什么
为什么脆弱时候
想你更多

如果你也听说
有没有想过我
想普通交朋友
还是你依然会心疼我
好多好多的话想对你说
悬着一颗心没着落
要怎么附和
舍不得
又无可奈何

如果你也听说
会不会相信我
对流言会附和
还是你知道我还是我
跌跌撞撞才明白了许多
懂我的人就你一个
想到你想起我
胸口依然温柔

如果你也听说
有没有想过我
想普通交朋友
还是你
依然会心疼我
跌跌撞撞才明白了许多
冷漠的人就你一个
想到你想起我
胸口依然温柔

如果你想起我
你会想到什么

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Count on my Love - Liz Phair

Count On My Love – Liz Phair
Soundtrack: No Reservations
Album: Somebody’s Miracle


Don't know where we'll be tomorrow
But we'll beg and borrow everything we need
You are standing next to me,
Where I want to be
Is anywhere you are

Some day if we never said it
We might live to regret it
Come on, don't let us slip away in a daze

You can count on my love
And I'm bright out when it's raining
When you feel your hope is fading
You can count on my love

Blue eyes, bluer than the blue sky
Smiling down like sunshine
Everywhere you are
For you, I only want the best
You only have to ask
And I'll be there for you

Some day if we never said it
We might live to regret it
Come on, don't let us fade away in a haze

You can count on my love
And I'm bright out when it's raining
When you feel your hope is fading
You can count on my love
With me you'll feel protected
And you'll never be rejected

You go through your whole life waiting
But you don't know what you're waiting for
One day you'll meet somebody
And your whole world now is an open door

You can count on my love
You can count on my love
And I'm bright out when it's raining
When you feel your hope is fading

You can count on my love
With me you'll feel protected
And you'll never be rejected
When you need a friend to lean on
You know you never need a reason
To count on my love
Count on my love
You can count of my love

Monday, October 27, 2008

Energy for Change

You can create the energy to turn your dreams into reality by knowing what to say when you talk to yourself.

-Shad Helmstetter

Friday, October 24, 2008

The Mighty Hedged Funds on SALES!

At the end of October last year 2007, the FTSE 100 was 6,721. Just a year later, and now the index is 3,890. That’s a fall of 42%!

US, London and Japan stocks are far from alone. Share prices have plunged round the world, and have recently fallen so fast that there’s the smell of blind panic around. What’s more, now the great and the good among the politicians and central bankers are competing with each other to tell us how bad the recession will be, and how long it will last. In other words, this might seem to be about as bad as it gets – Sir John Templeton’s fabled point of “maximum pessimism” - which is just when contrarian investors start coming into their own.

But while sniffing out shares that have fallen right out of favour isn’t too difficult right now, there’s a much bigger problem out there. Hedge funds are in forced sale mode! Stock markets may be in fire-sale territory (even longer-term bears such as Jeremy Grantham believe stocks are now closer to being undervalued) but a lot of the big sellers are the hedge fund managers. They bought stocks with borrowed money, and are now having to offload them.

While we can’t yet know exactly what’s being sold, we do know there’s plenty more stock still in the pipeline. The hedge fund industry has been staggering through its worst time in two decades, with an average loss of 17% this year. That beats the performance of most global stock markets, but it’s still not exactly great for a concept that was supposed to be able to sidestep declining markets (though to be fair, ‘short-selling’ bans haven’t helped recently).

Now the heat is really being turned up. Some 8,000 hedge funds with more than $1.7 trn in assets are “being caught in a vicious cycle” say BusinessWeek’s Matthey Goldstein and David Henry, “as worried investors pull out their money”. The problem lies in the mix of plunging markets and massive de-leveraging, i.e. paying down debt, across the financial system. Over the three months to September, another $179bn was wiped off the value of hedge fund assets by falling asset prices, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Spooked by the market falls, and keen to have ready cash at hand, investors have been pulling their money out at a rapid rate, with almost $31bn being withdrawn over the quarter – which means hedgies need to sell more assets to repay clients. On top of this, as markets fall, lenders are also cutting credit lines to their hedge fund customers or are making ‘margin calls’, i.e. demanding that those funds come up with extra cash to back up their borrowings.

And as if that wasn’t enough, the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy is still tying up tens of billions of dollars-worth of hedge fund assets. Lots of money managers had “parked” cash and other securities at the investment bank's prime brokerage operation. But these accounts are now frozen.

But it’s about to get even worse...

That’s more than enough bad news for any industry to cope with. As many as 30% of hedge funds will be shutting up shop “in a Darwinian process”, says Emmanuel Roman at GLF Partners, and the US authorities will force-feed regulation onto the rest: “there need to be scapegoats, and they are going to go hunt people”. That will make business even harder, and lead to even more forced selling.

In London, out of 450 hedge funds, more than 100 could be at risk, says Miles Costello in The Times. New York Professor Nouriel Roubini, who has been spot on about how bad things were going to get, agrees that hundreds of hedge funds will fail. “We've reached a situation of sheer panic. Yet I fear the worst is ahead of us. Don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days”. This is pretty apocalyptic stuff. But the cavalry isn’t about to appear over the horizon.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson confirmed to Bloomberg yesterday that unregulated firms like hedge funds won't initially get government aid as “we're focused on regulated financial institutions.” So “you can argue that it could be worse than Wall Street because no one is coming in to save the hedge funds”, says Hank Higdon at Higdon Partners.

Why you shouldn't go bargain hunting just yet? What does this mean for the ordinary investor?

Well, because of the hedgie effect, share prices could easily fall some way further than anyone expects. “The market’s going to overshoot on the downside”, says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak, who sees the Dow tumbling to 5,000 next year, more than 40% below today. “When that occurs, I’ll be a raging bull”. So it’s a brave man, or woman, however contrarian, who’s prepared to dip more than a very small toe in the market with the hedge funds in forced sale mode for some time to come. I certainly wouldn’t be buying any funds, passive or actively managed.

Period.

Father and Son

I try to be a good father. Give my son everything he needs. Pay for his phonics class. Take him and mom out for fine dining. Have yearly photo shoots... etc...

But compared with Dick Hoyt, I suck.

You see, eighty-five times he's pushed his disabled son, Rick, 26.2 miles (41.92 km) in marathons. Eight times he's not only pushed him 26.2 miles in a wheelchair but also towed him 2.4 miles in a dinghy while swimming and pedaled him 112 miles in a seat on the handlebars - all in the same day.

Dick's also pulled him cross-country skiing, taken him on his back mountain climbing and once hauled him across the U.S. on a bike. Makes taking your son bowling look a little lame, right?

And what has Rick done for his father? Not much - except save his life.

This love story began in Winchester, Mass., 43 years ago, when Rick was strangled by the umbilical cord during birth, leaving him brain-damaged and unable to control his limbs.

"He'll be a vegetable the rest of his life," Dick says doctors told him and his wife, Judy, when Rick was nine months old. "Put him in an institution."

But the Hoyts weren't buying it. They noticed the way Rick's eyes followed them around the room. When Rick was 11 they took him to the engineering department at Tufts University and asked if there was anything to help the boy communicate.

"No way," Dick says he was told. "There's nothing going on in his brain."

"Tell him a joke," Dick countered. They did. Rick laughed. Turns out a lot was going on in his brain.

Rigged up with a computer that allowed him to control the cursor by touching a switch with the side of his head, Rick was finally able to communicate. First words? "Go Bruins!" And after a high school classmate was paralyzed in an accident and the school organized a charity run for him, Rick pecked out, "Dad, I want to do that."

Yeah, right. How was Dick, a self-described "porker" who never ran more than a mile at a time, going to push his son five miles? Still, he tried. "Then it was me who was handicapped," Dick says. "I was sore for two weeks."

That day changed Rick's life. "Dad," he typed, "when we were running, it felt like I wasn't disabled anymore!"

And that sentence changed Dick's life. He became obsessed with giving Rick that feeling as often as he could. He got into such hard-belly shape that he and Rick were ready to try the 1979 Boston Marathon.

"No way," Dick was told by a race official. The Hoyts weren't quite a single runner, and they weren't quite a wheelchair competitor. For a few years Dick and Rick just joined the massive field and ran anyway, then they found a way to get into the race officially. In 1983 they ran another marathon so fast they made the qualifying time for Boston the following year.
Then somebody said, "Hey, Dick, why not a triathlon?"

How's a guy who never learned to swim and hadn't ridden a bike since he was six going to haul his 110-pound kid through a triathlon? Still, Dick tried.

Now they've done 212 triathlons, including four grueling 15-hour Ironmans in Hawaii. It must be a buzzkill to be a 25-year-old stud getting passed by an old guy towing a grown man in a dinghy, don't you think?

Hey, Dick, why not see how you'd do on your own? "No way," he says. Dick does it purely for "the awesome feeling" he gets seeing Rick with a cantaloupe smile as they run, swim and ride together.

This year, at ages 65 and 43, Dick and Rick finished their 24th Boston marathon, in 5,083rd place out of more than 20,000 starters. Their best time? Two hours, 40 minutes in 1992 - only 35 minutes off the world record, which, in case you don't keep track of these things, happens to be held by a guy who was not pushing another man in a wheelchair at the time.

"No question about it," Rick types. "My dad is the Father of the Century."

And Dick got something else out of all this too. Two years ago he had a mild heart attack during a race. Doctors found that one of his arteries was 95% clogged. "If you hadn't been in such great shape," one doctor told him, "you probably would've died 15 years ago."

So, in a way, Dick and Rick saved each other's life.

Rick, who has his own apartment (he gets home care) and works in Boston, and Dick, retired from the military and living in Holland, Mass., always find ways to be together. They give speeches around the country and compete in some backbreaking race every weekend, including this Father's Day.

That night, Rick will buy his dad dinner, but the thing he really wants to give him is a gift he can never buy.

"The thing I'd most like, "is that my dad sit in the chair and I push him once."

By Rick ReillySports Illustrated
- Used with permission

Dick and Rick Hoyt have a book and DVD. To learn more about this very special father and son team go to: www.teamhoyt.com

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Falling down or Staying down?

"Failure is not the falling down, but the staying down."

Mary Pickford
(1892–1979)
Canadian actress

They may have fallen down, but they didn't stay down. Check out these examples of resourceful and resilient people refusing to give up:

Before his circus was "The Greatest Show On Earth", P.T. Barnum filed for bankruptcy due to unwise business investments, and even contemplated suicide. He chose instead to start his famous circus, which he then merged with competitor James A. Bailey's. The Barnum and Bailey Circus netted Barnum over $2 million during his lifetime.

Milton Hershey had only a 4th grade education and four failed candy businesses when he filed for bankruptcy. His fifth business attempt, the Hershey Foods Corporation (now The Hershey Company) is America's largest chocolate manufacturer.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Shares may well be cheap...but they may get a lot CHEAPER!!!

Is this a good time to buy back in to the market? I am sure at some point many will be asking this question.

With share prices crashing around our ears, there’s clearly no lack of doom and gloom around at the moment. But if you’re a bit of a contrarian thinker (means people go left, you go right), who likes selling when markets are frothy and sneaking back in when everyone else is dumping stock in panic, you might be thinking it's time to buy.

Shares have dropped such a long way, it’s very tempting to start thinking about finding some bargains. But WAIT!! Are you aware what is the next scary thing thats about to unfold?

Hedged funds!

Yeah right. What’s happening on the hedge fund front may mean it’s not quite that simple and easy for you to time an entry now to buy back … really.

Yes, stocks are cheap now, but they will get cheaper, a lot cheaper soon...heehaaa :)

Monday, October 20, 2008

"Claypot" Laksa?

I dined out at the Food Republic (Vivo City) last night, and had a really interesting encounter with this stall that sell one of our favourite local dish - LAKSA!

The signboard read: "Claypot Laksa: $6.90"

Wow! That's steep for a bowl of almighy but ubiquitous laksa, I thought.

Wait a minute, I just had one last week near Katong, for a mere $4.00. Served in a plastic bowl.

But wait another minute, I also just had a bowl of Laksa last last week near my good old neighbourhood coffeeshop, for... $3.00. Sadly, it was also served in plastic bowl.

So now I understand:

Between Laksa and "Katong" Laksa, the different is $1. (or the real different is actually just the word "Katong")

Okay, now between "claypot" laksa and "Katong" Laksa, the different is ... $2.90 !!! (or the real different is just the word "claypot")

Now it set me wondering:

1. Does laksa really taste better in claypot? I doubt so.
2. Does eating Laksa in Katong cost $1 or 2 more?
3. Will it be cheaper if it is Sengkang Laksa?
4. Must I pay more if my Laksa is prepared elsewhere, but sell and served in Katong?

I am sure by now you get what I am hitting :)

No no... is it really better if it is actually "COOKED" in a claypot?? I doubt so too.

So, those diners that paid $6.90 for that touted bowl of heavenly milk noodle is actually paying for the container (claypot) ... yeah ... just the vessel that hold the ordinary, everyhwere-available laksa. I find it laughable and pathetic.

Remember: Anything that is written "Claypot" is not really that "Claypot"... if you know what I mean.

Laksa in a claypot does little to enhance the flavour. It does enhance the bottomline for the laksa seller though...that I am very certain.

What a ripped-off!!!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Song: You Will Never Walk Alone

Along life's road, there will be sunshine and rain,
Roses and thorns,
Laughter and pain.
And cross the miles, you will face mountains so steep,
Deserts so long,
Valleys so deep.

Sometimes the journey's gentle,
Sometimes the cold winds blow.
But I want you to remember...
I want you to know...

Chorus:

You will never walk alone,
As long as you have faith,
Jesus will be right beside you all the way.
You may feel you're far from home,
But home is where He is,
And He'll be there down every road,
You will never walk alone.

The path will wind,
And you will find wonders and fears,
Labors of love,
And a few falling tears.
Across the years, there will be some twists and turns,
Mistakes to make, and
Lessons to learn.

Sometimes the journey's gentle,
Sometimes the cold winds blow.
But I want you to remember,
Wherever you may go...

Jesus knows your joy,
Jesus knows your need.
He will go the distance with you faithfully.

Written by Lowell Alexander
Copyright 2001
Word Music, Inc
ASCAP

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Seasons of Love - From RENT Musical

Artist: RENT Musical
Song: Seasons Of Love

Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Six Hundred Minutes
Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Moments so Dear
Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Six Hundred Minutes
How Do You Measure - Measure A Year?

In Daylights - In Sunsets
In Midnights - In Cups Of Coffee
In Inches - In Miles
In Laughter - In Strife
Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Six Hundred Minutes
How Do You Measure
A Year In The Life

How About Love?
How About Love?
How About Love?
Measure In Love
Seasons Of Love
Seasons Of Love

Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Six Hundred Minutes
Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Journeys To Plan
Five Hundred Twenty-Five Thousand Six Hundred Minutes
How Do You Measure The Life
Of A Woman Or A Man?

In Truths That She Learned
Or In Times That He Cried
In Bridges He Burned
Or The Way That She Died

It's Time Now - To Sing Out
Tho' The Story Never Ends
Let's Celebrate
Remember A Year In The Life Of Friends
Remember The Love
Remember The Love
Remember The Love
Measure In Love

Measure, Measure Your Life In Love
Seasons Of Love

Monday, September 8, 2008

归宿 - 刘德华

Happened to hear this song last night at a Karaoke pub.

歌曲:归宿
歌手:刘德华

不想看见你哭
找个人倾诉
毋用隐藏无助
爱伤人的栏目
泪水的温度刺骨
已无法复苏

是故意
是疏忽
也是对爱的一种侮辱
真心有苦
痴心有毒
该不该早一点结束
是坟墓
是归宿
不要走到最后才清楚
为爱而哭
不是错误
痛的领悟
总有人不会在乎

受伤的人别哭
就听我倾诉
你我逆地相处
太一样的感触
输了就心服口服
从不会忌妒

是故意
是疏忽
也是对爱的一种侮辱
真心有苦
痴心有毒
该不该早一点结束
是坟墓
是归宿
不要走到最后才清楚
为爱而哭
不是错误
痛的领悟
总有人不会在乎

Friday, September 5, 2008

Form & Focus on a Mental Picture

Formulate and stamp indelibly on your mind a mental picture of yourself as succeeding.
Hold this picture tenaciously and never permit it to fade.
Your mind will seek to develop this picture!

Dr. Norman Vincent Peale

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

People are not Objects and Opportunities

As a society we have come to a point where people often treat each other as objects and opportunities rather than as unique human beings who are worthy and entitled to be treated with dignity and respect without exception. We live in complicated times, but the solutions to some of the problems we face do not have to be complicated. Dignity and respect is a simple solution to complicated issues, although it is not always easy to do. It takes insight, awareness, and paying attention to what is going on around us. It requires us to take a stand for what we believe to be true and to be an outer representation of the values we cherish.

- Gail Pursell Elliott

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Why Can't I - by Liz Phair

Why Can’t I
– Liz Phair

Get a load of me, get a load of you
Walkin' down the street, and I hardly know you
It's just like we were meant to be

Holding hands with you, and we're out at night
Got a girlfriend, you say it isn't right
And I've got someone waiting too

This is, this is just the beginning
We're already wet, and we're gonna go swimming

Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you
Why can't I speak whenever I talk about you
It's inevitable, it's a fact that we're gonna get down to it
So tell me
Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you

Isn't this the best part of breakin' up
Finding someone else you can't get enough of
Someone who wants to be with you too

It's an itch we know we are gonna scratch
Gonna take a while for this egg to hatch
But wouldn't it be beautiful
Here we are, we're at the beginning
We haven't fucked yet, but my heads spinning

Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you
Why can't I speak whenever I talk about you
It's inevitable, it's a fact that we're gonna get down to it
So tell me
Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you

I'd love for you to make me wonder
Where it's goin'
I'd love for you to pull me under
Somethin's growin'for this that we can control
Baby I am dyin'

Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you
Why can't I speak whenever I talk about you
Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you
Why can't I speak whenever I talk about you
It's inevitable, it's a fact that we're gonna get down to it

So tell me
Why can't I breathe whenever I think about you

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Refugee - by Tribal Ink

Refugee
– Tribal Ink

In fit of drowning, as my heart keeps pounding.
Scribing on the statue, all onto what's left.
Hold on, to the strings of reality.
Bouncing on my heel of prosperity.

Me by myself, with a gleam in my eye.
Watching it all wash by, watching me die.
It's so hard, to see it all fall through.
But it's too late, nothing left to do.

Chorus:
Refugee, I’m an enemy of your beliefs.
Don't hate me, because I disagree.

Release me, from the world unkind.
A world where the blind, is leading the blind.
It's so unfair, that I can't feel free.
That I have to be, what you want me to be.

Shadows of the past, keep stabbing my back.
Reminding me all, when I slept out a drag.
You're wasting your time, another morning dawning.
Time with the restless, keeps on joining.

Chorus:
Refugee, I’m an enemy of your beliefs.
Don't hate me, because I disagree.
Refugee, I’m an enemy of your beliefs.
Don't hate me, because I disagree.

Refugee, I’m an enemy of your beliefs.
Don't hate me, because I disagree.
Refugee, I’m an enemy of your beliefs.
Don't hate me, because I disagree.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Questions and Answers

Be patient toward all that is unsolved in your heart,
and try to love the questions themselves...
Do not now seek the answers,
which cannot be given to you,
because you will not be able to live them.
And the point is, to live everything.
Live the questions now.
Perhaps you will then gradually,without noticing it,
live along some distant day into the answer.

- Rainer Maria Rilke

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Game Plan

One who hopes for the best will live to regret it.
Have a plan.
Have a contingency one.
Don't leave it to hope or chance.

This over-used statement still holds true:

"You fail to plan, you plan to fail".

Have a plan, and make it a damn good one!

Sunday, August 10, 2008

一眼瞬间 - 张惠妹 & 萧敬腾

歌曲:一眼瞬间
歌手:张惠妹 萧敬腾


(女)白茫茫的星光
洒在长长路上
想念的冰凉
你知道吗
你浅浅的微笑
深似海的眼光
都能掀起我
滔天的巨浪

(男)你相信吗
这是命吗
这次我们放弃抵抗
哪怕拥抱
在身上画下深深的伤

(合)只要看你一眼一瞬间
哪怕是最后画面
我的世界
因为爱过而完美
谁都不该离太远

只要看你一眼一瞬间
足够我熬过千年
我不后悔
爱若让末日提前
我们要一起
好好迎接那句点

(女)白茫茫的星光
洒在长长路上
想念的冰凉
你知道吗
你浅浅的微笑
深似海的眼光
都能掀起我
滔天的巨浪

(男)你相信吗
这是命吗
这次我们放弃抵抗
哪怕拥抱
在身上画下深深的伤

(合)只要看你一眼一瞬间
哪怕是最后画面
我的世界
因为爱过而完美
谁都不该离太远

只要看你一眼一瞬间
足够我熬过千年
我不后悔
爱若让末日提前
我们要一起
好好迎接那句点

(女)如果相爱是错
(男)错过又算什么
(合)这一次我们宁死不放手
往彼此的心里跳
跳过天荒地老 wo oh ...

只要看你一眼一瞬间
哪怕是最后画面
我的世界
因为爱过而完美
谁都不该离太远

只要看你一眼一瞬间
足够我熬过千年
我不后悔
爱若让末日提前
我们要一起
好好迎接那句点

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Courage Under Fire

Worthy ideas stand up to criticism and the proverbial bucket of cold water.
Keep the fire burning.
Keep the flame burning bright and hot.
If your ideas are worthy, it will stand the test of time and tides, and emerge victorious!

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

BTITR – What’s the Plan & Strategy?

I start by stating a statement coined by a professor from NUS as a disclaimer: “A theory that explains all things explain nothing”. To me, a layman with a basic degree only, I would say that “A knife that claims to cut all things actually cuts nothing”. So here am I, trying to offer some strategies for balancing between protection and investment, all with your hard-earned money. Truth be told, there is no "one-knife-cuts-all" solution here.

Please do not take any advice wholesale. The suggestions here are NOT the “be all - and all”. Take what is good or make sense to you, and then apply them. The rest may just be bullshit, for all you know. Sometimes, advises dished out are all over-rated, even from the professionals. Really. So be warned, beware, and be careful. Here we go and roll!

Previously, I established that BTITR is a much preferred option than the traditionally “leaving-it-all” to the insurance company track. So, how much do we allow the insurance company to earn? Or rather, how much insurance you think you need in order to have peace of mind? This is tough, and I am not going that direction. Rather, I choose to do a case study for the sake of illustration.

My subject: Mr X, 35 year-old male, non-smoker.
Assumptions: Earn about $5,000 take home

Using my previous approach, I assumed that if an agent Y approached Mr X with a $300,000 whole life plan (limited pay in 25 years), his premium is $8,700 (That will be $761 per month if you pay monthly!).

His total premium will be $8,700 X 25 years = $217,500.

His projected cash values by then is $286,011.

So technically, Mr X gets back all his premium paid plus a modest gain of $68,511. Not bad for a 25-years “investment”, you may say.

I humbly beg to differ.

So, lets suppose Mr X meets agent Z this time, and offer him instead a BTITR track, how will it pan out? Let do the numbers:

Cost of $300,000 Term Plan, 25 years: $1,800 p.a.
Total premium paid by end 25 years : $1,800 X 25 = $45,000 (gone down the drain)

Balance unused cash flow: $8,700 - $1,800 = $6,900 (or $575 per month)

Invest it into a no-frill Regular Saving-Investment Plan in unit trust for 25 years, at nett rate of 6% p.a. (after deduction of 1.5% sales charge and 1.25% p.a. fund management fee).

The future value factor (for 6%, 25 years) is 58.1564.

Meaning if you invest $6,900 equivalent yearly into an investment that yields 6% p.a. for 25 years, you will get $6,900 X 58.1564 = $401,279!

Now, you have got to subtract the cost of term insurance protection from the above.

Hence, nett returns is $401,279 - $45,000 = $356,279!

So, would you take $356,279 or $68,511?

Your call.

The bottomline is:

Do you think it is realistic to ask somebody to put aside $8,700 a year for anything worthwhile? The answer is YES!

Do you think it is practical or wise to sink the entire amount into a whole life insurance plan?
The answer is NO!

Do you think $8,700 p.a. (about $725) is a huge chuck to cut out for financial planning?
The answer is YES and NO!

No because $725 is only about 14.5% of nett take home income. This $725 comes with a $300,000 coverage some more. I exclude gross income, cos that money goes separately into the CPF OA, SA and MediSave for other utilization (housing, partial retirement and medical needs etc.). Our former Prime Minister Mr Goh CT suggested that Singaporeans should look to saving at least 1/3 of their take home pay for retirement.

Yes, it is really too much, if it all goes into a single whole life insurance plan. It is not only too much, in my opinion, it is wastage. And as always, buying whole life plans only benefits the one who sells it, not so much the one who buys it.

If you can, fire-proof your plan with 2 additional plans:

1. CPF (MediSave) - Approved Hospital & Surgical Plan (Reformed MediShield)
2. Personal Accident Plan

I personally think that if you have about just $272 per year to spare (just another $22 per month), build in a Personal Accident Plan (PA). It gives another $300,000 of death, disability and dismemberment coverage, with extra hospital income and funeral expenses.

Good news is that you can use up to $800 per year for CPF-approved reformed medishield plan. Such plan covers you lifetime with no limit for life, just an annual limit of $500,000.

With that, you are quite earthquake-proof as far as personal risk management is concerned. For more details if you want to know if you are adequately prepared for retirement or protection, email me at thereisonlyonepcm@gmail.com

Good luck in your planning.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Buy Term and Invest the Rest - Where is the Value?

This has been a much debated topic in the financial planning arena since don't know when. As a student and practitioner of financial planning, I am challenged to constantly find a balance in the way I build my convictions on such financial matters. Times change, and with it many variables and components.

A whole life insurance plan that was touted by agents to offer 6-7% returns p.a. no longer holds true. We have to live with the reality that a participating plan (such as a whole life policy) now offers a dismal return of just over 3% - and that's is NOT even guaranteed okay!

Insurance companies are finding it harder to offer higher bonuses and dividends over the last 10 years. Yields have come off drastically. Inflation, on the other hand, is pushing vigilently upward. Things are getting more expensive, with little or no sign of abating. Your savings in the bank is strinking. "Eroding" in value is a better word, technically.

It is against this new or pressing backdrops that I re-evaluated my positions on "Buy Term and Invest the Rest" (BTITR). You see, life is limited, so are its resources. I am talking about income. In financial planning matters, the concept of "income" takes centre stage to and for me. Without income, you are out. Period. Income, income, income. Personal income. Generated by yourself by your hands and with your time. Pocket money from parents, grand-parents and god-parents don't count - we are adults already!

Just this morning during my usual routine run and breakfast with my esteemed associate, Wayne Koh, we talked about the topic on BTITR. We both agree that in current environment, BTITR seems to offer more appeal. Rather than leaving your money totally to the insurance companies, you deconstruct your portfolio allocation and reconstruct your own strategies and approach.

What is BTITR?

Simply, it is separating protection from participation. It is investment without involvement. It is leaving protection to the insurance specialist and investment to the professional fund managers. Let me explain in simple terms.

Protection without participation
When you buy a whole life plan, the plans are usually called "participating policies" - they participate in the returns of the life funds. Life funds is the place where insurance companies invest what is remain from the premiums collected, after commissions and overheads. They invest the funds in a broad range of diversified assets, and then declared a return to policyholders each year. Claims are made out from the life funds too, and hence the funds are not supposed to be subjected to risky investments for fear of high volatility and threats of inability to meet future claims.

When you buy term, the plans are usually called "non-participating policies" - they DO NOT participate in the returns of the life funds. You pay for protection only. Period. No returns. No strings attached. You choose how much and how long you need the coverage. Then the only liability on your part is paying the premium. It is cheap, dirt cheap. When I was a tied agent many years ago, my manager called it "Poor man insurance". Even the poor can afford it.

I call it "Wise man insurance" - Only the wise will purchase it. Buy it for its worth and value. Let me explain later.

Investment without involvement
Now, since term insurance is cheaper, way cheaper, there will be excess cash appeared from "unused" or "un-expensed" premium. Truth is, for the same amount of sum assured, say $300,000, you pay $1,800 p.a., compared to a whole life plan, which cost around $8,700. I am using a 35 year-old male, non-smoker. That's a whopping $6,900 difference. Now, what do you or can you do with this difference call "the rest"? Invest it, of course.

In this manner, you start to explore ways to park this excess cashflow. You terminate your cashflow's involvement with the insurance company's life funds and her fate or rate of returns. Haha...fate of returns, what an appropriate slip of tongue. Therefore, it is considered investment without involvement. Hence, BTITR.

Is it true? Yes!
Is it better? Depends!!

It depends on what you DO with the rest of the unused money. If invested carefully, you will outperform the life funds, with the flexibility of choosing your own portfolio of assets and not to mention the benefits of not needing to stick around with a whole life policy for at least 20-25 years before the cash value becomes visible and mature enough for withdrawal.

Yes, it is true and it can be better.

For those who need to see discreet numbers, please refer to my buddy and esteemed associate, Wayne Koh, and his notes in his blog - http://www.waynekoh.com/2008/07/btitr.html

More ideas later, okay. You must wait if you want good stuff. I don't get paid for writing, okay! Just kidding :)

Coming up next - Recommended Allocation for BTITR.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Best Movie for Q3: The Dark Knight


One of the best for 2008 - I enjoyed every minute of it! I must say that the real character to watch is the Joker.
.
“The Dark Knight” is not a simplistic tale of good and evil. Batman is good, yes, The Joker is evil, yes. But Batman poses a more complex puzzle than usual: The citizens of Gotham City are in an uproar, calling him a vigilante and blaming him for the deaths of policemen and others. And the Joker is more than a villain. He’s a Mephistopheles whose actions are fiendishly designed to pose moral dilemmas for his enemies.
.
The key performance in the movie is by the late Heath Ledger, as the Joker. Throughout the film, he devises ingenious situations that force Batman, Commissioner Gordon and District Attorney Harvey Dent to make impossible ethical decisions.
.
The plot involves nothing more or less than the Joker’s attempts to humiliate the forces for good and expose Batman’ secret identity, showing him to be a poser and a fraud. He includes Gordon and Dent on his target list, and contrives cruel tricks to play with the fact that Bruce Wayne once loved, and Harvey Dent now loves, Assistant D.A. Rachel Dawes. The tricks are more cruel than he realizes, because the Joker doesn’t know Batman’s identity.
..
For an indepth review, you can visit:
.
Quotes from the Joker:
.
I believe whatever doesn't kill you simply makes you... stranger.
.
The only sensible way to live in this world is without rules!
.
See, I'm not a monster...I'm just ahead of the curve.
.
See, I'm a man of simple tastes. I like dynamite...and gunpowder...and gasoline! Do you know what all of these things have in common? They're cheap!
.
You'll see, I'll show you, that when the chips are down, these uh... civilized people, they'll eat each other.
.
Do I really look like a man with a plan, Harvey? I don't have a plan. The mob has plans, the cops have plans. You know what I am, Harvey? I'm a dog chasing cars. I wouldn't know what to do if I caught one. I just *do* things. I'm a wrench in the gears. I *hate* plans. Yours, theirs, everyone's. Maroni has plans. Gordon has plans. Schemers trying to control their worlds. I am not a schemer. I show schemers how pathetic their attempts to control things really are. So when I say that what happened to you and your girlfriend wasn't personal, you know I'm telling the truth.
.
It's a schemer who put you where you are. You were a schemer. You had plans. Look where it got you. I just did what I do best-I took your plan and turned it on itself. Look what I have done to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple bullets. Nobody panics when the expected people get killed. Nobody panics when things go according to plan, even if the plans are horrifying. If I tell the press that tomorrow a gangbanger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will get blown up, nobody panics. But when I say one little old mayor will die, everyone loses their minds! Introduce a little anarchy, you upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I am an agent of chaos. And you know the thing about chaos, Harvey? It's fair.
.
If you're good at something, never do it for free.
.
You have nothing to threaten me with. Nothing to do with all your strength.
.
Let's turn the clocks back. A year ago, these cops and lawyers wouldn't dare cross any of you. I mean, what happened? Did your - did your balls drop off? Hmm?
.
Never start with the head, the victim gets all fuzzy.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Ceremony of Innocence

When we become more acutely aware of our personal power to make a difference, of the wonder of being an individual, and the unlimited possibilities each new day holds, it is a ceremony of innocence. This is a back to basics exercise in personal dignity and respect that frees us to once again believe that we can leave our footprints on the sands of time.

- Gail Pursell Elliott

Thursday, July 24, 2008

International Cow-poration

TRADITIONAL CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull.
Your herd multiplies and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.

AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You sell one and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
You are surprised when the cow drops dead.

FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You go on strike because you want three cows.

JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow
and produce twenty times the milk.
You then create clever cow cartoon images called 'Cowkimon'
and market them World-Wide.

GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years,
eat once a month, and milk themselves.

BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows.
Both are mad.

ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You break for lunch and forget about the cows.

SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5,000 cows and none of which belong to you.
You charge others for storing them.

CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You have 300 people milking them.
You claim full employment and high bovine productivity.

INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You worship them.

MALAYSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You signed a 40-year contract to supply milk at RM0.06 per litre.
Then mid-way through, you raised the price to RM0.60 or you cut the supply.
When the buyer agrees to the new price,
you change your mind again and now want RM1.20.
The buyer decided you can keep the milk,
and they go look for milk that comes from recycled cows or the cow urine instead.
Your two cows retire together with the Prime Minister with all the shit around him.

SINGAPOREAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
One cow-peh and one cow-bu.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Drink Champagne...

Drink champagne...yes, drink it for no reason at all. You don't need a reason to pop a bottle. And we don't need lousy excuses to gulp down one too. Sometimes, when you feel like drinking it, just drink it. Just remember that if you drink, don't drive.... finished your drink first, then drive...okay???

Haha...just kidding. Don't you ever drive if you drink alcohol!!! I mean it!!!

Friday, July 18, 2008

Peak Performers

One of the wonderful by-products of high self-esteem is that you become a “Peak Performer”.

Everyday you become more aware of your abilities and recognize that opportunities to stretch your capabilities are limitless. You desire change, growth and challenge, and a healthy self-esteem provides the energy.

Peak performers have more than goals, they have a vision of what their life will mean to themselves and others. Peak performers do not live in the future. Peak performers make sure each step taken in the present keeps them on the road toward their life goal.

Peak Performers can say:

I am motivated and have a mission with realistic and measurable goals.
I accept complete responsibility for everything I think, say, feel and do.
I look for the window of opportunity in every situation and know that I will learn from every experience if I choose.
I always help others to do their best, and I encourage everyone to contribute something.
I correct my course when I reach an obstacle. This way, when things go wrong, I am still headed in the right direction.
I expect and appreciate change. It does not overwhelm me because I am prepared.
I stand up for my own opinions and values and respect others.
I am able to manage myself. I do not require instruction every step of the way. I take initiative to act first instead of been asked.
I am not afraid of making mistakes or of taking reasonable risks.
I am my own coach. I engage in positive self-talk and rehearsals.
I am a life-long student. I am always ready to learn, and I know growth takes sustained effort.
I know myself well and still expect to find hidden talents, resources, strengths, weaknesses, energy, and interests.
I respect reality both pleasant and painful.
I engage in self-confrontation and do not blame others.
I readily forgive others and myself and correct mistakes when possible.
I am patient, kind, gentle and compassionate with myself.
I have no need to prove I am better or worse than anybody else.
I can be quiet and alone and not feel lonely because I have learned to enjoy silent and solitude as a platform for renewal and revival.
I am thankful for the good and the bad situations that present themselves daily, knowing that they toughen the character and inner man.
I take both the simple things and the classy stuffs in life with gratitude.
I dare to dream big, audacious dreams, and color them with impossible shades.
I am secured in my identity as a fearfully and wonderfully made creation of God.
I live to the fullest every minute, with depth and enthusiasm, for the Lord.


Who am I?
I am Eagleboy.
I am a Child of God.
I am a Peak Performer.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

What is Real Strength?

Strength is the ability to break a chocolate bar into four pieces with your bare hands - and then eat just one of those pieces.

- Judith Viorst

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Learn to Sail in High Winds

We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest. We must learn to sail in high winds.

- Hanmer Parsons Grant

Thursday, July 3, 2008

I am Rich!

"I have never been a millionaire. But I have enjoyed a crackling fire, a glorious sunset, a walk with a friend and a hug from a child. There are plenty of life's tiny delights for all of us."

Jack Anthony
American Author

I am rich, indeed :)

I am rich beyond measure...because:
Because I can enjoy the coolness of my air-conditioned room at home (when the nights are warm and humid), as compared to Jack who lives in cold-climate country, and therefore his crackling fire.
And because I can enjoy seeing a sunset with my eyes almost any day of the week, any week.
And because I can have as many walks and chat with friends, as my legs are still strong.
And because, simply because, I can have a hug from my loved ones daily, tells me that I can feel and I am alive!

I am rich, indeed! :)

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Fear of Poverty?

You are going to let the fear of poverty govern your life and your reward will be that you will eat, but you will not live.

George Bernard Shaw

Monday, June 30, 2008

Pick Up Lines at Helipad

I was chilling out at this new place called Helipad last night, and one of my female friend asked me what are some of the pick up lines that we guys often use to pick up girls. So, here we go:

You've got to refer me to your plastic surgeon.

Here’s $11. Drink until I’m really good looking, then come back and talk to me.

Do you mind if I stare at you up close instead of from across the room?

Is it hot in here or is it just you?

You know the more I drink, the prettier you get!

You must be Jamaican, because Jamaican me crazy.

Do you believe in love at first sight, or should I walk by again?

You know, you might be asked to leave soon. You're making the other women look really bad.

That's a nice shirt, it would go great with my floor.

What's a nice girl like you doing with a face like that?

Hand out business card that says: 'Smile if you want to sleep with me.'

All those curves, and me with no brakes.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Live Well, Laugh Often & Love Much

Today I want to share a personal perspective with you. Someone had the opportunity to spend time with a close female friend. Within months, she will no longer be with us.

Her last visit to her doctor's office was, in fact, her last visit to her doctor's office. The doctor told her to go home, "get her house in order", and spend her time with family and friends. There is nothing more that can be done.

She is 42 years young. She will leave behind three young children, a loving husband and many friends.

She has been cheated.

She wanted more out of life.

Don't we all?

She thought that she was going to live a very long time. Obviously, we know we are going to die; we just think that it will happen later in life.

This entry may have an undertone of sadness. My purpose, however, is not to tell you a sad story, but to motivate you to begin leading the life you want now because we don't know what the future will hold.

What would you do if you knew your time was limited to a few short weeks or months or years?

Whom would you call?
Where would you travel?
What would you say to your loved ones and family members that you may not have already said?
Most importantly, what will you leave behind and how will you be remembered?

Take some time to consider these questions.

Then begin today to lead the life you want. Create and fulfill goals, eat right, exercise more. And don't forget the best advice I can give - I see this daily on a plaque in my home:

Live Well, Laugh Often and Love Much!

Monday, June 23, 2008

Legal, Logical and Neither

After having failed his exam in "Logistics and Organization" , a student goes and confronts his lecturer about it.

Student: "Sir, do you really understand anything about the subject?"

Professor: "Surely I must. Otherwise I would not be a professor!"

Student: "Great, well then I would like to ask you a question. If you can give me the correct answer, I will accept my mark as is and go. If you however do not know the answer, I want you give me an "A" for the exam. "

Professor: "Okay, it's a deal. So what is the question?"

Student: "What is legal, but not logical, logical, but not legal, and neither logical, nor legal?"

Even after some long and hard consideration, the professor cannot give the student an answer, and therefore changes his exam mark into an "A", as agreed. Afterwards, the professor calls on his best student and asks him the same question.

He immediately answers: "Sir, you are 63 years old and married to a 35 year old woman, which is legal, but not logical.

Your wife has a 25 year old lover, which is logical, but not legal.

The fact that you have given your wife's lover an "A", although he really should have failed, is neither legal, nor logical."

Thursday, June 19, 2008

What is Time?

How do I view time? Where is my perspective? How do I value or measure it?

Someone once wrote that time is like credit in the bank ... blah blah blah...remember that story?
Everyday, this bank account of yours get an automatic credit of 24hrs X 60min X 60sec = $86,400 worth of seconds...I will go find that article and put it up here later.

Another of my friend believe that life is short and time is precious. So she frantically try to live it to the fullest.

So where is my perspective as far as time is concern?
Fleeting? Brief? Lost? Stolen? Precious? Irreplaceable? Short? Money? Limited?

Throughout centuries and generations, philosophers, scientists, kings and ordinary folks have written, discussed and studied this illusive concept and construct call time.
But what does the Creator and Master of all time and space and eternity has to say about it?
Where is God in this equation of time?

Of course if you believe in this God that I know, time is of no issue to Him, only to us, mere mortals. I personally believe that even with modern medical breakthrough, human livespan can only be calibrated around 75-85 years. Beyond these boundaries lies disabilities and despair, weakness and worries, limitations and liabilities. In fact, I may believe that men can add years to their life but not life to their years. So why seek extension of life, medically and artificially?

According to a Christian bookmark I have, Time is defined as:

"A limited resources extended only by giving the first part back to God".

"Honour the Lord ... with the firstfruits of all thine increase: So shall thy barns be filled with plenty... "
- Proverbs 3:9-10

I believe time is given to us as a valuable platform to enjoy doing His will. A dimension that can be altered by offering it back to God who is in charge.

May I find my time here on earth extended and expanded for His will and glory.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

An Enemy Called Reality

My greatest enemy is reality. I have fought it successfully for thirty years.

- Margaret Anderson

Thursday, June 12, 2008

蒲公英的约定 - 周杰伦

曲名:蒲公英的约定
歌手:周杰伦
作曲:周杰伦

小学篱芭旁的蒲公英
是记忆里有味道的风景
午睡操场传来蝉的声音
多少年后也还是很好听
将愿望折纸飞机寄成信
因为我们等不到那流星
认真投决定命运的硬币
却不知道到底能去哪里

一起长大的约定
那样清晰 
打过勾的我相信
说好要一起旅行
是你如今 
唯一坚持的任性

在走廊上罚站打手心
我们却注意窗边的蜻蜓
我去到哪里你都跟很紧
很多的梦在等待着进行

一起长大的约定
那样清晰 
打过勾的我相信
说好要一起旅行
是你如今 
唯一坚持的任性

一起长大的约定
那样真心
与你聊不完的曾经

而我已经分不清
你是友情
还是错过的爱情

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Character Through Trials

Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experiences of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, vision cleared, ambition inspired and success achieved

-Helen Keller

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Winning and Losing

If you can react the same way to winning and losing, that is a big accomplishment. That quality is important because it stays with you the rest of your life.

- Chris Evert
Professional tennis player (United States)
Won 18 Grand Slam singles titles

Note: Evert's career win-loss record in singles matches of 1,309-146 (.900) is the best of any professional player in tennis history.

7 Basic Life Principles

The Principle of Design:
Thanking God for your design enables self acceptance.

The Principle of Authority:
Honouring your authorities brings inward peace.

The Principle of Responsibility:
Asking for forgiveness reaps a clear conscience.

The Principle of Suffering:
Fully forgiving others brings genuine joy.

The Principle of Ownership:
Yielding your rights to God brings true security.

The Principle of Freedom:
Reclaiming areas controlled by sins brings moral purity.

The Principle of Success:
Meditating on Scriptures reveals life's purpose.

Isn't these what we need and want?

Thursday, May 22, 2008

The Prayer of Jabez

Dear Father,

I desire to be the most honourable person in Your kingdom, fit for the Master's use.

Today I pray that You would bless me indeed;
and enlarge my territory, my influence and my opportunities;
that Your hand would be with me, leading and guiding my thoughts and decisions;
that You would keep me, my family and my interests from evil.

Lord, may You cause me to bring blessings, joy and comfort to all that I come in contact with today.

In Jesus' Name, Amen

(2 Chron 4:10)
My own paraphrased version 2008

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

What is a juggler?

One person in my facebook sphere called herself a juggler. Now what exactly is a juggler? I looked the word up and found this:

jug·gler - ˈdʒʌglər'/ [juhg-ler] –noun

1. a person who performs juggling feats, as with balls or knives.
2. a person who deceives by trickery; trickster; one that uses tricks, deception, or fraud.

So for simplicity sake, just know that when a person says he or she is a juggler, it can mean more than just one who perform juggling feats.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Love is Bestowed...

Love is always bestowed as a gift-- freely, willingly, and without expectation...We don't love to be loved; we love to love.

- Leo Buscaglia

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

To Serve People...

"To serve people takes dignity and intelligence. But remember, they are only people with money. And although we serve them, we are not their servants. What we do, Miss Ventura, does not define who we are. What defines us is how well we rise after falling."

Lionel
Character from the Movie - Maid in Manhattan

Sunday, May 11, 2008

What is Power?

Power is acknowledging our weaknesses and accepting our limitations as loving reminders to enter into Christ's strength.

"... For the joy of the Lord is your strength."
(Nehemiah 8:10)

"...[God's] strength is made perfect in weakness..."
(2 Cor 12:9)

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

太美丽 by David 陶喆

To the only woman that I ever know, love and die for...here's my heart :)

歌曲:太美丽
歌手:陶喆
专辑:太美丽

每一滴眼泪
每一次心碎
什么爱能无疚无悔
不灰心等待
痛苦也忍耐
你坚持爱了就不后退
我知道我不是一个轻易就会说爱的人
没有想到这样的你却改变我

太美丽
太美丽
你的爱是多么的甜蜜
太美丽
爱让我也美丽
现在我不再怀疑
不怀疑有多爱你

每一个脚印
每一朵乌云
说着我的飘忽不定
伤你伤好深
别人早就要放弃
为何你还是会给我宽容
我知道我不是一个轻易就会说爱的人
可是你坚强的付出却改变我

太美丽
太美丽
你的爱是多么的甜蜜
太美丽
爱让我也美丽
现在你也不必再去怀疑

当你在风雨的未知里走过
当我在迷失的自我的漩涡
交汇在黑暗中你我发出了新的光芒
现在我已全明白
什么是爱的真义

太美丽
太美丽
你的爱让生命太甜蜜
太美丽
只有对你感激
越过表面我看见你
美丽的心

你最美丽
你太美丽

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Character vs Reputation

Character is like a tree and reputation like its shadow.
The shadow is what we think of it; the tree is the real thing.

Unknown Author

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

JP Morgan Buy Bear Sterns Cheap!!!

JP Morgan Chase & Co announced they are buying The Bear Sterns Companies. Guess what? They got it cheap, just over US$240 million!!!

The price per share? US$2! From a high of US$171!!!

The end result? The majority of BSC employees will not only be out of a job, their investments in BSC are nearly worthless, a severe blow to their net worth. In fact, any Bear Sterns investors will take a substantial loss. One major BSC shareholders reportedly had a paper loss of about US$800 million!

JPM takes on some seriously risky debt, but the reward could be substantial. Why did I say so? According to sources from my late night CNBC, BSC is currently worth US$7.7 billion, if you break up its individual department and sell it piecemeal to the market.

Did JPM get a good deal, or are they digging themselves into a deeper hole? One thing I am certain, there will be lawsuits and protests from market players and investors. BSC stock activists are already taking a stand against this buyout.

To some, this is purely a company bailout; to the US government and the Fed, it is a system bailout. They need to show that a strong bank is willing to back up a failing branch, and in turn the Government is willing to back up that strong bank.

More later. Tread safely.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Market Overreaction

What is overreaction? Simply, it is a market hypothesis stating that investors and traders react disproportionately to new information about a given security. This will cause the security's price to change dramatically, so that the price will not fully reflect the security's true value immediately following the event.

Now, typically, the price swing from overreaction is not long lasting, as the stock price will tend to return back to its true value over time. The overreaction hypothesis is not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

For example, suppose that company XYZ releases its annual operating results, which beat analyst expectations by a mere penny per share, which is generally not a big deal. However,
given the news, traders and investors subsequently bid the stock up to unprecedented highs. After a couple of days of trading, the stock then falls down to a price just above its price before the earnings release, which represents the stock's current intrinsic value.

Hence, don't overreact.

Monday, March 3, 2008

House "Poor": Asset Rich, Cash Poor

What actually is house "poor"? In singapore, I call these people asset rich, cash poor people. Let me explain. House poor is a situation that describes a person who spends a large proportion of his or her total income on home ownership, including mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance and utilities. House poor individuals are short of cash for discretionary items and tend to have trouble meeting other financial obligations like vehicle payments.

People typically become house poor because they buy more house than they can afford, but there are other ways that people can become house poor as well. For example, some people will become house poor after the birth of a child, when one spouse decides to stay at home with the new addition, rather than going back to work.

I have coined another term called Car "poor". These individuals own expensive and branded cars but stay in a small, public housing unit. Why these people choose to be car poor? The reason is simple: People usually do not follow you home to see where you stay. But they do get to see you on and off the road daily. So, rather than putting your wealth in hard solid ground, they prefer to show off their wealth through...right, their rides.

There is simply a high correlation between the car you drive and the type of house you live in. Hence, if you drive a BMW, you must be rich and possibly staying in a big private house. This assumption is faulty but, well, that's what shallow people think. At the end of the day, you are the best person to access who are the real wealthy ones and who are the fakes.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

How To Use ETFs In Your Portfolio

To recap: ETFs are an investing innovation that combines the best features of index mutual funds with the trading flexibility of individual securities. ETFs offer diversification, low expense ratios and tax efficiency in a flexible investment that can be adapted to suit a multitude of objectives. To reap the true benefit of investing in ETFs you need to use them strategically.

At the most basic level, ETFs can be used as part of both long-term and short-term investment strategies. Their low expense ratios and high trading flexibility make them attractive alternatives to traditional mutual funds.

Index Investing
From a strategic standpoint, the first and most obvious use of ETFs is as a tool to invest in broad-market indexes. On the equity side, there are ETFs that mirror the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Industrials and just about every other major market index. On the fixed-income front, there are ETFs that track a variety of long-term and short-term bond indexes including the Lehman 1-to-3 Year Treasury, the Lehman 20-Year Treasury and the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index.

Using ETFs to cover the major market sectors, you can quickly and easily assemble a low-cost, broadly diversified index portfolio. With just two or three ETFs, you can create a portfolio that covers nearly the entire equity market and a large portion of the fixed-income market. Once the trades are complete, you can simply stick to a buy-and-hold strategy as you would with any other index product, and your portfolio will move in tandem with its benchmark.

Actively Managing a Longer-Term Portfolio
In a similar fashion, you can create a broadly diversified portfolio but choose a more active-management strategy instead of simply buying and holding to track the major indexes (which is passive management). While the ETFs themselves are index funds (meaning there is no active management on the part of the money manager overseeing the portfolio), this doesn't stop investors from actively managing their holdings. For example, say you believe that short-term bonds are set for a meteoric rise; you could sell your position(s) in the broader bond market and instead buy an ETF that specializes in short-term issues. (You could do the same for your expectations for equities.)

Of course, the major market indexes represent only a portion of the many investment opportunities that ETFs provide. If your core portfolio is already in place, you can augment your core holdings with more specialized ETFs, which provide entry into a wide array of small-cap, sector, commodity, international, emerging-market and other investing opportunities. There are ETFs that track indexes in just about every area, including biotechnology, healthcare, REITs, gold, Japan, Spain and more. By adding small positions in these niche holdings to your asset allocation, you add a more aggressive supplement to your portfolio. Once again, you can buy and hold to create a long-term portfolio, but you can use more active trading techniques too. For example, if you think REITS are poised to take a tumble and gold is set to rise, you can trade out of your REIT position and into gold in a matter of moments at any time during the trading day.

Active Trading
If actively managing a long-term portfolio isn't spicy enough for your tastes, ETFs may still be the right flavor for your palette. While long-term investors might eschew active- and day-trading strategies, ETFs are the perfect vehicle if you are looking for a way to move frequently into and out of an entire market or a particular market niche. Since ETFs trade intraday, like stocks or bonds, they can be bought and sold rapidly in response to market movements, and unlike many mutual funds, ETFs impose no penalties when you sell them without holding them for a set period of time.

While it is true that you must pay a commission each time you trade ETFs, if you are aware of this cost and the dollar value of your trade is high enough, the commission cost is nominal. Consider, for example, a $10 commission on a $10,000 trade. At .1%, the cost is hardly worth mentioning. Also, since they trade intraday, ETFs can be bought long or sold short, used in hedge strategies and bought on margin. If you can think of a strategy that can be implemented with a stock or bond, that strategy can be applied with an ETF - but instead of trading the stock or bond issued by a single company, you are trading an entire market or market segment.

Wrap Investing
For investors who prefer fee-based investments as opposed to commission-based trading, ETFs are also part of various wrap programs. While ETF wrap products are still in their infancy in Singapore, it's a safe bet that more are coming soon.

Conclusion
Overall, ETFs are convenient, cost efficient, tax efficient and flexible. They are easy to understand and easy to use, and they are gaining in popularity at such a rapid pace that some experts anticipate that they will one day surpass the popularity of mutual funds. If ETFs haven't found a place in your portfolio yet, there is a pretty good chance that they will in the future.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a type of financial instrument whose unique advantages over mutual funds/ unit trusts have caught the eye of many an investor. If you find the tasks of analyzing and picking stocks a little daunting, ETFs may be right for you. In this entry I will attempt to define ETFs, highlight their advantages, and list some of the most popular ETFs available to investors.

What Is an ETF?
Think of an exchange-traded fund as a mutual fund that trades like a stock. Just like an index fund, an ETF represents a basket of stocks that reflect an index such as the S&P 500. An ETF, however, isn't a mutual fund; it trades just like any other company on a stock exchange. Unlike a mutual fund that has its net-asset value (NAV) calculated at the end of each trading day, an ETF's price changes throughout the day, fluctuating with supply and demand. It is important to remember that while ETFs attempt to replicate the return on indexes, there is no guarantee that they will do so exactly. It is not uncommon to see a 1% or more difference between the actual index's year-end return and that of an ETF.

By owning an ETF, you get the diversification of an index fund plus the flexibility of a stock. Because ETFs trade like stocks, you can short sell them, buy them on margin and purchase as little as one share. Another advantage is that the expense ratios of most ETFs are lower than that of the average mutual fund. When buying and selling ETFs, you pay your broker the same commission that you'd pay on any regular trade.

Varieties of ETFs
The first exchange-traded fund was the S&P 500 index fund (nicknamed spiders because of their SPDR ticker symbol), which began trading on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) in 1993. Today - tracking a wide variety of sector-specific, country-specific and broad-market indexes - there are hundreds of ETFs trading on the open market. You can pretty much find an ETF for just about any kind of sector of the market.

For example, if you were interested in the healthcare sector, perhaps Vanguard’s Health Care Viper (ticker VHT) would be worth looking into. Does the Austrian market peak your interest? Then take a look at the ishares MSCI Austrian Index fund (ticker EWO). Or if you’d like exposure to the internet infrastructure sector, then maybe Merrill Lynch’s HOLDRs (ticker IIH0) might be for you.

Some of the more popular ETFs have nicknames like cubes (QQQQ), vipers (VIPERs) and diamonds (DIAs). All ETFs are passively managed, meaning investors save big on management fees. Below you will find a closer look at some of the more popular ETFs:

Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ)
This ETF represents the Nasdaq-100 Index, which consists of the 100 largest and most actively traded non-financial stocks on the Nasdaq, QQQQ offers broad exposure to the tech sector. Because it curbs the risk that comes with investing in individual stocks, the QQQQ is a great way to invest in the long-term prospects of the technology industry. The diversification it offers can be a huge advantage when there’s volatility in the markets. If a tech company falls short of projected earnings, it will likely be hit hard. Between 2000 and 2004, QQQQ was by far the most heavily traded index fund.

SPDRs
Usually referred to as spiders, these investment instruments bundle the benchmark S&P 500 and give you ownership in the index. Imagine the trouble and expenses involved in trying to buy all 500 stocks in the S&P 500! SPDRs allow individual investors to own the index's stocks in a cost-effective manner. Another nice feature of SPDRs is that they divide various sectors of the S&P 500 stocks and sell them as separate ETFs, there are literally dozens of these types of ETFs. The "technology select sector index", for example, contains over 85 stocks covering products developed by companies such as defense manufacturers, telecommunications equipment, microcomputer components, and integrated computer circuits. This ETF trades under the symbol XLK on the AMEX.

iShares
iShares is Barclay's (Barclay’s Global Investors “BGI”) brand of ETFs. In 2004 there were approximately 120 iShares trading on more than 10 different stock exchanges. Barclay has put out a number of technology-oriented iShares that follow Goldman Sachs's technology indexes. All of these particular ETFs trade on the AMEX.

Vipers
Just like iShares are Barclay’s brand of ETFs, VIPERs are Vanguard’s brand of the financial instrument. Vipers, or Vanguard Index Participation Receipts, are structured as share classes of open-end funds. Vanguard also offers dozens upon dozens of ETFs for many different areas of the market including the financial, healthcare and utilities sectors.

DIAMONDs
These ETF shares, Diamonds Trust Series I, track the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The fund is structured as a unit investment trust. The ticker symbol of the Dow Diamonds is DIA, and it trades on the AMEX.

Conclusion
A great reason to consider ETFs is that they simplify index and sector investing in a way that is easy to understand. If you feel a turnaround is around the corner, go long. If, however, you think ominous clouds will be over the market for some time, you have the option of going short. The combination of the instant diversification, low cost and the flexibility that ETFs offer, makes these instruments one of the most useful innovations and attractive pieces of financial engineering to date.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Anger and Overcoming it

"Anger ruins joy, steals the goodness of my mind, forces my mouth to say terrible things. Overcoming anger brings piece of mind, leads to a mind without regrets. If I overcome anger, I will be delightful and loved by everyone."

-Charlie Crews from "Life"

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Life is too Short...

"Life is too short and whining is totally unattractive"

-Psylocke

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Stock Taking 2

If there is one thing I need to stop buying, this is it: Cuff Links!
.
The last time I counted, I have 30 pairs of them - yeah right, one for each day! And the cost for them: Around $2000 in all. (The most expensive pieces here cost around $150).
.
Okay, I must admit that my little collection is no match against some of my lady friends' accessories, whose LV bag alone can cost up to $2000 a piece already!
.
For the unfamiliar ones, a cufflink is a decorative fastener for the two sides of the cuff on a shirt.
Cufflinks are designed only for use with link cuffs shirts (also known as French Cuffs), which have buttonholes on both sides but no buttons. These may be either single or double-length ("French") cuffs, and may be worn either "kissing," with the ends pinched together, or "barrel-style," with one end overlapping the other.
.
And yes, I have 2 (actually 3) pairs of silk knot, which is an alternative fastener to a cufflink. They are also known as monkey's fists (although, technically speaking, the knot is a Turk's head, not a monkey's fist) . Despite having a lower cost than cufflinks, they are just as well regarded and just as formal.
.
The problem with cuff links shirts is that sometimes you leave home without the links! That's kind of embarrassing and you will look quite wierd without them! So, for people like me who drive, I kept an extra pair in my car (just in case) :)

Friday, February 1, 2008

Stock Taking 1

As a child, I always look forward to the coming Chinese New Year. Reasons: Lots of food, ang bao, and new clothings. Sadly, for most part of my recent years, the food isn't cheap (all food bills footed by me), the ang bao received are decreasing compared to the ones I received, and ... new clothings aren't cheap.

Why?

Well, for a start, I have to pay for the mandarin oranges as well as the "bak kua", not to mention other types of goodies. Next, I prepared in the region of $800 for ang baos (some for my parents, some for parent-in-laws, and the rest for other 'outlaws') but I always received less than $800. Man...it is a money-losing business!!!

Now, as for new clothings, most of my shirts are tailor-made. On average, I arrange for 5 sets of link-cuffs shirt made every 6 months, plus a pair of black pants. On the record, I still have around 4 pairs of brand new pants in my closet!!!

Perhaps the only people that are happy during this Chinese New Year are the kids, and ... my tailor!

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Fed's Cut As Expected

Once again, our dear Federal Reserve stepped in and made a half-point rate cut, a move that Wall Street (and me) apparently liked :)

I know you know that many also know that the rate cut didn't come as a complete surprise, as the stock market had been banking on it. They just weren't sure if it would be the half-point cut, or a more cautious quarter-point. The move today puts the federal funds rate target at 3%, the lowest since June 2005!

Once the cut was announced just now, the stock markets went positive: within minutes of the decision, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 100 points at one point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose following the report.

Well, it's positive news (at least for a while), but between this latest cut and last week's unexpected three-quarter point cut, will it be enough to rejuvenate the economy? Let's wait and see. To me, it has been more waiting and less seeing.

Interestingly, the Dow turned right around, gave back every penny of its gains, and ended the day DOWN 37 points at the closing bell! Why? Because most investors in the street aren't dumb. They know what's going on in their own neighborhoods. They see the handwriting on the wall in the headlines. And they realize Bernanke's caught between a rock and a hard place.

On one hand (the rock), the US economy is sinking very slowing, but surely. Home construction plunged 24% in the fourth quarter, the worst since 1981! The economy sputtered to a virtual standstill in the fourth quarter, crawling at the anemic pace of just 0.6% per year! And for the entire year, GDP growth was the worst since 2002, then when the economy was suffering from the aftermath of 9-11, a tech wreck, and a wave of scandal-ridden corporate bankruptcies — all at the same time!

On the other hand (a hard place), resurging inflation that only gets worse as the Fed cuts rates and pumps more money into the market. My favourite inflation hedger, Mr Gold, is my best indicator. Gold is on fire, surging another $7 just today! The U.S. Dollar Index got killed today — down 75 basis points on today's Fed rate cut alone. And then in November, we saw the most dramatic surge in wholesale prices in 22 years! Finally, import prices surged by a staggering 10.9%, signaling much, much higher inflation ahead!

This is serious!
This is scary!!
This is shocking!!!

It means that long before the Fed's rate cuts begin to have the desired impact on the economy, they're already beginning to backfire with more inflation. Do you see it now? Are you selling too? I am, and I suggest you do the same, at least for short term. Leave emotion out of the equation. Just clear your stock holdings and keep at least 70% cash, 20% Bonds, & 10% equities if you must.

Good luck, or else, good bye!!!

Friday, January 25, 2008

Until the Day's Out

"Measure not the work until the day's out and the labor done."

Elizabeth Barrett Browning
(1806-1861)
English poet

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Stay Alive!

There is a remedy for everything except death.

- A French Proverb

So stay alive and you can pull through anything. Death may be near or far, but the choice to work at something worth working is yours to take today. Stay focus and stay alive!

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

True Brilliance is...

True brilliance is not a function of understanding one's view of the world and finding order, logic, and spirituality in it.

True brilliance is understanding that your view of order, logic, and spirituality is what created your world. And therefore being forever capable of changing everything.

Got the view now?

Monday, January 21, 2008

World Largest Bond Insurer Collapsing

Ambac and MBIA, the two largest bond insurers in the world, are careening toward collapse. Barring a miraculous rescue, their demise could promptly deliver a massive blow to the U.S. bond market, and severely damage America's already shaken big banks, and largely trash the net worth of millions of investors.

Just this past Friday, soon after the closing bell in New York, the watershed event happened: Ambac lost its triple-A rating! Fitch slashed Ambac's rating by two notches to AA, downgraded the long-term rating of Ambac's parent company by three notches, and said more cuts could be on the way.

Since the ratings of insured bonds are tied directly to the ratings of the insurer, Fitch was also forced to take action on the 137,000 bonds that are covered by Ambac, setting off a veritable ratings massacre in the market for municipal and mortgage-backed bonds.

Now, based on the current market price of credit swaps (bets on future defaults), Wall Street itself believes that the chance Ambac and MBIA will avoid bankruptcy is less than one in three. Next, brace yourself for the other shoes that could soon be falling. There are at least 6 of them coming our way:

First, the other two leading rating agencies — Moody's and S&P — are likely to follow Fitch's lead and also downgrade Ambac. In fact, on Thursday, Moody's already warned it could do so very soon.

Second, the other major bond insurers, such as MBIA and FGIC, will get smacked with downgrades.

Third, the ratings massacre now taking place in Ambac-insured bonds will spread to $2.3 trillion worth of municipal bonds, mortgage-backed bonds, plus asset-backed bonds packed with credit card and auto loans.

Fourth, $45 trillion in the world's fastest-growing type of derivative — credit default swaps — will be in jeopardy. Indeed, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal:

"The turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their many trades with one another."

"Today, a struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its trading partners for more time as it scrambles to unwind more than $60 billion of insurance contracts it sold to financial firms but can't fully pay off, according to people familiar with the matter. The contracts were intended to protect Wall Street firms from losses on mortgage securities and other debt they own."

"The problem is that the insurer itself is teetering — with repercussions across the financial world. Some of its trading partners, called counterparties, already are writing off billions of dollars because of its inability to pay ..."

"This has investors and regulators worried that, through such swaps, some market players could spread their own problems to the wider financial system ..."

"The issue is raising broader concern among regulators and investors over what Wall Street calls 'counterparty risk,' the danger that one party in a trade can't pay its losses. ..."

Fifth, virtually all credit ratings, whether tied to bond insurers or not, will come under intense scrutiny. The reasons are twofold:

a) Deteriorating finances: If you're running a bank, a hedge fund or a major brokerage firm, and most of your trading partners get swiftly downgraded, your credit rating will also have to be slashed.

b) Declining investor confidence in the accuracy of the ratings themselves: If you're an investor and you see thousands of ratings falling like flies, you're going to seriously doubt the accuracy of every rating under the sun.

Sixth, the crisis could spread to hundreds of trillions in other derivatives beyond credit swaps.

Don't wait! The collapse of bond insurers, bond ratings and credit swaps is moving quickly. And it's accelerating. Don't underestimate its magnitude! This is not an isolated crisis. It could have an impact that's at least as large as the housing bust or the recession.

You can start doing something still. Greatly reducing your exposure to most U.S. stocks and bonds. Personally, I will take a 50-20-30 line-up:

50% Bonds, 20% Cash, 30% Equities.

Remember: Beware of those who might try to dismiss the warnings as "gloom and doom." Instead, just look at the facts. Then make up your own mind.

Best of Trading, God bless!

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Statistics is like a Bikini

Statistics is like a Bikini; what is revealed is suggestive, but what is concealed is vital.

-Unknown

That's why you should not be paying too much attention to the media. Do your own research and uncover for yourself the vitals. Then go make the right decisions.