King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies

King of the Birds, Lord of the Skies
Gather ye rose buds while ye may, old time is still a flying;
and this same rose that you see today, tomorrow will be dying.
CarpeDiem: Seize the Day!
- Dead Poets Society

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Market Overreaction

What is overreaction? Simply, it is a market hypothesis stating that investors and traders react disproportionately to new information about a given security. This will cause the security's price to change dramatically, so that the price will not fully reflect the security's true value immediately following the event.

Now, typically, the price swing from overreaction is not long lasting, as the stock price will tend to return back to its true value over time. The overreaction hypothesis is not consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

For example, suppose that company XYZ releases its annual operating results, which beat analyst expectations by a mere penny per share, which is generally not a big deal. However,
given the news, traders and investors subsequently bid the stock up to unprecedented highs. After a couple of days of trading, the stock then falls down to a price just above its price before the earnings release, which represents the stock's current intrinsic value.

Hence, don't overreact.